--- title: "Pearly case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pearly ($47.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 82.79% over 31 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly rendered: 2026-11-11T15:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pearly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pearly A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly?window=all) Price · $47.72 · 68.17 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $43.38 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.79% · 31 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 46.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 13 openings · below min 30 days · 31 openings · below min since tracking started · 31 openings · below min 25.5% 70.8% 116.0% **Small sample.** 31 openings and 9.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly?window=7d) | 13 | 70.75% ±44.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly) | 31 | 82.79% ±28.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearly?window=all) | 31 | 82.79% ±28.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,255 1,793 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $162 232 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $111 158 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $103 147 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $99.40 142 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $99.40 142 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $98.00 140 coins | 6.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $90.30 129 coins | 10.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 17.7% | $77.70 111 coins | 31.7% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $69.05 98.65 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $60.41 86.3 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $56.98 81.4 coins | 21.0% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 67 | $39.78 56.83 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $39.30 56.14 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.65× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) | 20.0% | $2.13 3.04 coins | 1.0% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.31 1.87 coins | 0.6% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pearly) [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $1.29 1.84 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $1.73 2.47 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $1.73 2.47 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $48.41 69.15 coins $1.29 1.84 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $57.94 82.77 coins 1.20x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $39.74 56.77 coins 0.82x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $1.73 2.47 coins 0.04x 2026-11-07 03:54 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) Hidden $48.41 69.15 coins $79.10 113 coins 1.63x 2026-11-07 03:54 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $48.41 69.15 coins $43.25 61.79 coins 0.89x 2026-11-07 03:54 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) [deewman-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/deewman-) $48.41 69.15 coins $1.29 1.84 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 02:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.72 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $48.41 | 90.90% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.41 | 90.92% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 4.5% covert 28.0% rare 0.0% mil spec 0.5% classified 5.0% restricted 22.0% industrial 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt