--- title: "PedroFederer case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "PedroFederer ($16.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 94.68% over 13.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [PedroFederer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · PedroFederer A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer?window=all) Price · $16.93 · 24.18 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $15.39 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.68% · 13.4K openings, odds method Variance · 68.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 232 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 112.91% ±38.98 1,738 openings 7 days · 94.39% ±15.30 11.3K openings 30 days · 94.68% ±14.02 13.4K openings since tracking started · 94.68% ±14.02 13.4K openings 73.5% 113.0% 152.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer?window=24h) | 1,738 | 112.91% ±39.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer?window=7d) | 11.3K | 94.39% ±15.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer) | 13.4K | 94.68% ±14.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pedrofederer?window=all) | 13.4K | 94.68% ±14.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,277 6,110 coins | 11.1% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 23.1% | 34 | 26.9 | 1.26× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,514 2,163 coins | 7.9% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 901 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 8.2% | 23 | 15.0 | 1.54× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,096 1,566 coins | 10.7% | 23 | 20.2 | 1.14× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $610 872 coins | 9.9% | 22 | 33.7 | 0.65× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $148 211 coins | 5.8% | 76 | 80.8 | 0.94× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $65.53 93.61 coins | 11.5% | 351 | 363.7 | 0.96× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-well-worn-emerald) | 1 in 17 | $30.87 44.1 coins | 11.8% | 817 | 790.7 | 1.03× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 4,040 | 4041.6 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 4,025 | 4041.6 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 4,049 | 4041.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 252.7x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 252.7x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $4,277 6,110 coins 252.7x 2026-11-09 15:56 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 251.7x 2026-11-04 21:06 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) [Zibbydibby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zibbydibby) $16.97 24.24 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 251.7x 2026-11-04 14:10 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 104.8x 2026-11-08 14:51 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [Spacey](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spacey) $16.97 24.24 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 104.8x 2026-11-08 14:49 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 104.8x 2026-11-08 11:47 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 104.8x 2026-11-07 23:34 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [AcostaKurin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AcostaKurin) $16.97 24.24 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 104.8x 2026-11-07 23:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pedrofederer) [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [JVKEE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JVKEE) $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $16.93 24.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.93 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.87 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.97 | 90.92% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 3.4% restricted 0.1% classified 0.6% extraordinary 5.9% consumer 90.0% best hit $4,277 (252.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt