---
title: "Perfect Storm case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Perfect Storm ($2.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.01% from 20 items with odds, observed 90.68% over 16.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Perfect Storm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Perfect Storm

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm?window=all)

Price · $2.02 · 2.88 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.01% · EV $1.83 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.68% · 16.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.10% ±7.19 1,784 openings

7 days · 91.04% ±2.59 14.3K openings

30 days · 90.68% ±2.41 16.6K openings

since tracking started · 90.68% ±2.41 16.6K openings

81.5% 89.3% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm?window=24h) | 1,784 | 89.10% ±7.19 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm?window=7d) | 14.3K | 91.04% ±2.59 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm) | 16.6K | 90.68% ±2.41 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfect-storm?window=all) | 16.6K | 90.68% ±2.41 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $77.00 110 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $61.05 87.22 coins | 2.5% | 15 | 12.5 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.28 58.97 coins | 2.2% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.08× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $31.50 45 coins | 0.9% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 870 | $20.36 29.08 coins | 1.3% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $14.44 20.63 coins | 1.2% | 27 | 24.9 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $9.67 13.82 coins | 1.1% | 38 | 33.2 | 1.14× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.78 11.12 coins | 25.5% | 967 | 996.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Mood Ring Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mood-ring-strafe-holo) | 1 in 67 | $5.94 8.49 coins | 4.9% | 253 | 249.0 | 1.02× |
| [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $4.62 6.6 coins | 0.6% | 51 | 41.5 | 1.23× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.14 5.92 coins | 2.3% | 169 | 166.0 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $3.74 5.35 coins | 5.1% | 414 | 415.1 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.38 4.83 coins | 3.7% | 336 | 332.0 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.28 4.69 coins | 7.2% | 663 | 664.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.37 3.38 coins | 7.7% | 1,029 | 996.1 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.00 2.86 coins | 9.9% | 1,503 | 1502.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.83 2.62 coins | 7.0% | 1,100 | 1162.1 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 10.4% | 3,345 | 3320.4 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.52 0.74 coins | 5.6% | 3,295 | 3320.4 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.7% | 3,357 | 3320.4 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=perfect-storm)

[Dual Berettas | Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $3.38 4.83 coins 1.68x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) [yeahfurijs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/yeahfurijs) $2.02 2.88 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $2.00 2.86 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-minimal-wear) [yeahfurijs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/yeahfurijs) $2.02 2.88 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $3.74 5.35 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) Hidden $2.02 2.88 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.02 | 91.01% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $1.99 | 90.83% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.99 | 90.75% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.99 | 90.79% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.02 | 90.82% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.02 | 90.75% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $2.02 | 91.02% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $2.01 | 90.99% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.01 | 91.06% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.01 | 90.99% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.01 | 90.77% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 37.3% red 0.1% covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% pink 0.1% classified 4.7% mil spec 16.3% remarkable 1.5% consumer 20.0% industrial 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.01 on average: an expected loss of $8.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt