--- title: "Perfectly Purple case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Perfectly Purple ($38.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 90.18% over 911 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Perfectly Purple](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Perfectly Purple A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple?window=all) Price · $38.05 · 54.35 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $34.59 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.18% · 911 openings, odds method Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88 openings · below min 7 days · 93.03% ±22.96 689 openings 30 days · 90.18% ±20.04 911 openings since tracking started · 90.18% ±20.04 911 openings 28.0% 91.3% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple?window=24h) | 88 | 91.19% ±62.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple?window=7d) | 689 | 93.03% ±23.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple) | 911 | 90.18% ±20.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/perfectly-purple?window=all) | 911 | 90.18% ±20.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 947 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 16.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.70× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $431 616 coins | 12.5% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $164 234 coins | 10.4% | 26 | 20.8 | 1.25× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 11.0% | $97.30 139 coins | 30.9% | 110 | 104.2 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $43.49 62.13 coins | 12.6% | 101 | 94.7 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 6.4% | 58 | 56.8 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 23.0% | $12.52 17.89 coins | 8.3% | 212 | 217.8 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 23.0% | $2.94 4.2 coins | 2.0% | 204 | 217.8 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 23.5% | $1.06 1.51 coins | 0.7% | 226 | 222.5 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.99 54.27 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 51.32x 2026-11-05 18:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $38.00 54.28 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 51.31x 2026-11-05 10:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=perfectly-purple) [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $1.08 1.54 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $1.08 1.54 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $43.49 62.13 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $43.49 62.13 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $12.52 17.89 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $38.05 54.36 coins $431 616 coins 11.33x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $1.08 1.54 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $1.08 1.54 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $38.05 54.36 coins $1.08 1.54 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $38.05 54.36 coins $97.30 139 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.05 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.82 | 90.91% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $37.99 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.00 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.3% covert 24.2% classified 29.0% restricted 46.5% best hit $1,949 (51.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt