--- title: "Peril case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Peril ($589.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 48.04% over 48 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Peril](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Peril A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril?window=all) Price · $589.51 · 842 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $535.92 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 48.04% · 48 openings, odds method Variance · 22.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min -0.5% 90.3% 181.0% **Small sample.** 48 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril?window=7d) | 48 | 48.04% ±132.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril) | 48 | 48.04% ±132.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peril?window=all) | 48 | 48.04% ±132.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $105K 150,000 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 2,000 | $22.4K 32,005 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,429 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $8,887 12,695 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 170 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 286 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 87 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 9.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 125 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 154 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 80 | $3,622 5,175 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 74 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) | 30.0% | $17.34 24.77 coins | 1.0% | 12 | 14.4 | 0.83× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) | 30.0% | $11.82 16.88 coins | 0.7% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) | 30.0% | $3.99 5.7 coins | 0.2% | 21 | 14.4 | 1.46× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $590 843 coins $6,790 9,700 coins 11.51x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $598 854 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 7.20x 2026-11-07 15:18 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $598 854 coins $1,115 1,593 coins 1.86x 2026-11-05 18:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) Hidden $598 854 coins $1,115 1,593 coins 1.86x 2026-11-04 22:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=peril) [AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) Hidden $590 843 coins $3.99 5.7 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) Hidden $590 843 coins $13.20 18.86 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $590 843 coins $6,790 9,700 coins 11.51x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) Hidden $590 843 coins $17.34 24.77 coins 0.03x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) Hidden $590 843 coins $17.34 24.77 coins 0.03x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) [1ikedior](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/1ikedior) $590 843 coins $13.20 18.86 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) Hidden $598 854 coins $3.52 5.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-07 15:18 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) [🟢LIVE kick/sn0wieTV GIVEAWAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2LIVE%20kick%2Fsn0wieTV%20GIVEAWAY) $598 854 coins $3.52 5.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-07 15:18 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) Hidden $598 854 coins $3.52 5.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-07 15:18 UTC [SSG 08 | Death's Head (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-well-worn) Hidden $598 854 coins $18.75 26.79 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 15:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $590 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $590 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $590 | 90.91% | 23 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $598 | 90.91% | 23 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $598 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $598 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 3.0% remarkable 1.1% base 0.1% covert 4.2% extraordinary 1.7% restricted 60.0% classified 30.0% best hit $6,790 (11.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt