--- title: "Permafrost case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Permafrost ($51.96) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 96.71% over 2,626 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Permafrost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Permafrost A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost?window=all) Price · $51.96 · 74.23 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.24 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.71% · 2,626 openings, odds method Variance · 8.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.97% ±24.13 537 openings 7 days · 99.76% ±12.02 2,224 openings 30 days · 96.71% ±11.08 2,626 openings since tracking started · 96.71% ±11.08 2,626 openings 56.0% 84.3% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost?window=24h) | 537 | 80.97% ±24.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost?window=7d) | 2,224 | 99.76% ±12.0 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost) | 2,626 | 96.71% ±11.1 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/permafrost?window=all) | 2,626 | 96.71% ±11.1 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,627 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,119 1,598 coins | 9.5% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 9.2% | 16 | 10.5 | 1.52× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 2.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $879 1,256 coins | 18.6% | 23 | 26.3 | 0.88× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 250 | $760 1,086 coins | 6.4% | 14 | 10.5 | 1.33× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $162 231 coins | 29.8% | 222 | 228.5 | 0.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $125 179 coins | 5.3% | 62 | 52.5 | 1.18× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $96.60 138 coins | 6.1% | 59 | 78.8 | 0.75× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $76.30 109 coins | 8.1% | 136 | 131.3 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $55.30 79 coins | 4.7% | 121 | 105.1 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 630 | 656.8 | 0.96× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 674 | 656.8 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 655 | 656.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-08 05:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-08 00:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-06 14:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-05 20:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-05 18:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-04 16:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.12 73.03 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 22.18x 2026-11-04 13:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 21.53x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [OrcGazmas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/OrcGazmas) $51.96 74.23 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 21.53x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=permafrost) [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $51.96 74.23 coins $55.30 79 coins 1.06x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins $162 231 coins 3.11x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $51.96 74.23 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.96 74.23 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $51.96 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $51.95 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $52.04 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.12 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.4% covert 14.9% extraordinary 1.0% classified 8.7% consumer 75.0% best hit $1,134 (22.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt