--- title: "Phantom case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Phantom ($0.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.71% from 27 items with odds, observed 92.33% over 45.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Phantom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Phantom A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom?window=all) Price · $0.92 · 1.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.71% · EV $0.84 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.33% · 45.9K openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.71% ±4.11 5,180 openings 7 days · 92.46% ±1.55 38.6K openings 30 days · 92.33% ±1.43 45.9K openings since tracking started · 92.33% ±1.43 45.9K openings 87.0% 91.8% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom?window=24h) | 5,180 | 91.71% ±4.11 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom?window=7d) | 38.6K | 92.46% ±1.55 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom) | 45.9K | 92.33% ±1.43 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phantom?window=all) | 45.9K | 92.33% ±1.43 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $116 166 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $49.41 70.59 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $41.85 59.78 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $32.21 46.02 coins | 0.4% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $26.82 38.32 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $19.30 27.57 coins | 0.7% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.94× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $11.00 15.71 coins | 8.0% | 307 | 280.4 | 1.09× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $9.84 14.06 coins | 0.4% | 19 | 13.8 | 1.38× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $4.55 6.5 coins | 2.7% | 240 | 229.9 | 1.04× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $4.44 6.35 coins | 0.3% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $4.00 5.71 coins | 0.2% | 19 | 23.0 | 0.83× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $3.38 4.83 coins | 1.4% | 166 | 160.9 | 1.03× | | [FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2.96 4.23 coins | 3.5% | 457 | 459.8 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.39 3.41 coins | 5.7% | 937 | 919.5 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.78 2.54 coins | 4.2% | 912 | 919.5 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.64 2.34 coins | 7.8% | 1,809 | 1839.0 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.33 1.9 coins | 3.2% | 977 | 919.5 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.26 1.8 coins | 16.5% | 5,011 | 5057.3 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.11 1.58 coins | 4.0% | 1,373 | 1379.3 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.02 1.45 coins | 4.8% | 1,931 | 1839.0 | 1.05× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.97 1.38 coins | 8.1% | 3,187 | 3218.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.94 1.35 coins | 3.4% | 1,387 | 1379.3 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.84 1.2 coins | 4.0% | 1,852 | 1839.0 | 1.01× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.82 1.17 coins | 6.8% | 3,250 | 3218.3 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.80 1.14 coins | 7.9% | 3,940 | 3838.9 | 1.03× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 2.8% | 8,977 | 9195.0 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.08 0.11 coins | 1.8% | 9,173 | 9195.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $0.90 1.28 coins $117 167 coins 130.5x 2026-11-06 19:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $0.90 1.29 coins $48.82 69.75 coins 54.07x 2026-11-08 05:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $0.90 1.29 coins $48.82 69.75 coins 54.07x 2026-11-07 19:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $0.90 1.29 coins $48.82 69.75 coins 54.07x 2026-11-07 04:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $48.82 69.75 coins 54.49x 2026-11-06 18:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=phantom) [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.80 1.14 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [TO REALITY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TO%20REALITY) $0.92 1.32 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $1.11 1.58 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.97 1.38 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.80 1.14 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.08 0.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-well-worn) Hidden $0.92 1.32 coins $0.80 1.14 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $0.92 | 90.71% | 27 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.92 | 90.95% | 27 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $0.90 | 91.23% | 27 | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $0.91 | 90.91% | 27 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.91 | 90.81% | 27 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.90 | 91.05% | 27 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.91 | 90.57% | 27 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.90 | 91.13% | 27 | | 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.90 | 91.14% | 27 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $0.90 | 91.01% | 27 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $0.88 | 91.21% | 27 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.88 | 91.15% | 27 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.88 | 91.25% | 27 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $0.88 | 91.01% | 27 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.88 | 90.87% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% mil spec 12.0% covert 0.0% consumer 11.1% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 35.4% industrial 20.5% Uncommon 20.0% best hit $117 (130.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.71 on average: an expected loss of $9.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt