--- title: "Pharaoh case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pharaoh ($21.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.85% over 6,294 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pharaoh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pharaoh A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh?window=all) Price · $21.90 · 31.28 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $19.91 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.85% · 6,294 openings, odds method Variance · 16.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.61% ±26.19 904 openings 7 days · 89.59% ±10.72 5,381 openings 30 days · 88.85% ±9.91 6,294 openings since tracking started · 88.85% ±9.91 6,294 openings 69.0% 95.8% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh?window=24h) | 904 | 95.61% ±26.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh?window=7d) | 5,381 | 89.59% ±10.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh) | 6,294 | 88.85% ±9.91 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pharaoh?window=all) | 6,294 | 88.85% ±9.91 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,294 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,454 3,505 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,569 2,241 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,301 1,859 coins | 1.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× | | [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,007 1,439 coins | 5.1% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $883 1,262 coins | 3.1% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $878 1,254 coins | 4.4% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $330 472 coins | 4.1% | 22 | 15.7 | 1.40× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $286 409 coins | 7.2% | 24 | 31.5 | 0.76× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $191 273 coins | 17.3% | 86 | 113.3 | 0.76× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $120 171 coins | 7.8% | 72 | 81.8 | 0.88× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $117 167 coins | 4.1% | 47 | 44.1 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $58.58 83.69 coins | 13.8% | 293 | 295.8 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $49.73 71.05 coins | 18.7% | 490 | 472.0 | 1.04× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $43.76 62.52 coins | 6.4% | 189 | 182.5 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-sienna-damask-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 2,521 | 2517.6 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,524 | 2517.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins $2,454 3,505 coins 112.1x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $21.89 31.27 coins $1,507 2,153 coins 68.85x 2026-11-06 13:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $21.89 31.27 coins $1,507 2,153 coins 68.85x 2026-11-03 21:21 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.89 31.27 coins $1,352 1,931 coins 61.75x 2026-11-04 18:03 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.83 31.19 coins $1,301 1,859 coins 59.60x 2026-11-08 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 46.00x 2026-11-10 11:53 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) [Flexter.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Flexter.) $21.90 31.28 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 46.00x 2026-11-09 08:12 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $21.89 31.27 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 46.02x 2026-11-08 01:51 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $21.89 31.27 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 46.02x 2026-11-06 21:30 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) [hrsnmisgesalle](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hrsnmisgesalle) $21.89 31.27 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 46.02x 2026-11-06 20:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pharaoh) [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-sienna-damask-field-tested) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-sienna-damask-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $21.90 31.28 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-sienna-damask-field-tested) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $21.90 31.28 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $21.90 | 90.92% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.90 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.83 | 90.92% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.89 | 90.90% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 14.2% remarkable 0.1% rare 0.8% gold 0.3% classified 1.8% extraordinary 2.9% consumer 80.0% best hit $2,454 (112.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt