--- title: "Philatelist case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Philatelist ($34.64) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 96.72% over 501 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Philatelist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Philatelist A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist?window=all) Price · $34.64 · 49.49 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $31.49 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.72% · 501 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 97.27% ±11.89 487 openings 30 days · 96.72% ±11.73 501 openings since tracking started · 96.72% ±11.73 501 openings 32.5% 88.5% 144.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist?window=24h) | 22 | 88.50% ±55.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist?window=7d) | 487 | 97.27% ±11.9 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist) | 501 | 96.72% ±11.7 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/philatelist?window=all) | 501 | 96.72% ±11.7 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 501 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| ScreaM (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-scream-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 5,000 | $360 514 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 5,000 | $283 404 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $237 338 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 222 | $200 285 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 200 | $195 279 coins | 3.1% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× | | [Sticker \| STYKO (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-styko-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 67 | $191 273 coins | 9.1% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| RpK (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rpk-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 286 | $185 264 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| NBK- (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nbk-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 100 | $169 241 coins | 5.4% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $162 232 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| MSL (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-msl-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 222 | $147 210 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.77× | | [Sticker \| Golden (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-golden-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 83 | $130 186 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Foil) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 27 | $104 148 coins | 12.3% | 24 | 18.8 | 1.28× | | [Sticker \| rain (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 50 | $93.10 133 coins | 5.9% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× | | [Sticker \| NBK- (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nbk-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 17 | $68.28 97.54 coins | 13.0% | 27 | 30.1 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| autimatic (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-autimatic-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 26 | $66.33 94.76 coins | 8.0% | 22 | 19.0 | 1.16× | | [Sticker \| Freeman (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeman-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 20 | $61.05 87.22 coins | 9.7% | 30 | 25.1 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| Astralis (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 22 | $41.64 59.48 coins | 5.9% | 25 | 22.5 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 11 | $37.63 53.75 coins | 11.2% | 47 | 47.1 | 1.00× | | [Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmas music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-midnight-riders-all-i-want-for-christmas) | 20.0% | $2.39 3.41 coins | 1.5% | 99 | 100.2 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragon music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-eye-of-the-dragon) | 20.0% | $1.79 2.56 coins | 1.1% | 101 | 100.2 | 1.01× | | [Music Kit \| Rad Cat, Reason music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-rad-cat-reason) | 20.0% | $1.42 2.03 coins | 0.9% | 90 | 100.2 | 0.90× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=philatelist) [Music Kit | Rad Cat, Reason music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-rad-cat-reason) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $1.42 2.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 05:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragon music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-eye-of-the-dragon) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:31 UTC [Music Kit | Rad Cat, Reason music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-rad-cat-reason) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $1.42 2.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 05:31 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) | DreamHack 2014 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil-dreamhack-2014) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $104 148 coins 2.99x 2026-11-11 05:31 UTC [Sticker | NBK- (Gold) | Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nbk-gold-katowice-2019) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $68.28 97.54 coins 1.97x 2026-11-11 05:31 UTC [Sticker | Astralis (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-cologne-2016) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $34.64 49.49 coins $41.64 59.48 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 05:31 UTC [Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmas music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-midnight-riders-all-i-want-for-christmas) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $2.39 3.41 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragon music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-eye-of-the-dragon) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [Music Kit | Rad Cat, Reason music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-rad-cat-reason) Hidden $34.64 49.49 coins $1.42 2.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragon music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-eye-of-the-dragon) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $34.64 49.49 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $34.64 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.63 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $33.93 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.14 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed exotic 8.7% remarkable 9.5% extraordinary 21.8% high 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt