--- title: "Phoenix case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Phoenix ($224.40) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.36% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix rendered: 2026-11-11T14:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Phoenix A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix?window=all) Price · $224.40 · 321 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $204.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.36% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min 46.0% 84.3% 122.5% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix?window=7d) | 28 | 82.50% ±35.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix) | 38 | 91.36% ±30.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/phoenix?window=all) | 38 | 91.36% ±30.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $1,446 2,065 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $1,204 1,720 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $660 943 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 18.5% | $396 565 coins | 35.9% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.42× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $379 541 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $295 421 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $274 392 coins | 9.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $148 211 coins | 5.8% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.64× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 15.0% | $130 185 coins | 9.5% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 18.0% | $65.95 94.22 coins | 5.8% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 12.0% | $52.51 75.02 coins | 3.1% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.10× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $26.36 37.66 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $227 325 coins $639 913 coins 2.81x 2026-11-04 07:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=phoenix) [USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) Hidden $224 321 coins $130 185 coins 0.58x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) Hidden $224 321 coins $65.95 94.22 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $224 321 coins $396 565 coins 1.76x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $224 321 coins $396 565 coins 1.76x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $227 325 coins $146 209 coins 0.64x 2026-11-08 00:57 UTC [USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) Hidden $227 325 coins $132 188 coins 0.58x 2026-11-08 00:57 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $227 325 coins $53.72 76.75 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 00:57 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [EzHype](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/EzHype) $227 325 coins $407 581 coins 1.79x 2026-11-08 00:57 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $227 325 coins $53.72 76.75 coins 0.24x 2026-11-07 14:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) [LokomotivHelvette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LokomotivHelvette) $227 325 coins $27.85 39.78 coins 0.12x 2026-11-07 14:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $224 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $225 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $227 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 73.0% restricted 15.0% extraordinary 12.0% best hit $639 (2.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt