---
title: "Photograph case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Photograph ($0.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.18% from 19 items with odds, observed 90.65% over 77K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Photograph](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Photograph

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph?window=all)

Price · $0.89 · 1.27 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.18% · EV $0.81 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.65% · 77K openings, odds method

Variance · 21.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.04% ±10.60 7,184 openings

7 days · 90.35% ±3.57 62.7K openings

30 days · 90.65% ±3.22 77K openings

since tracking started · 90.65% ±3.22 77K openings

86.0% 98.3% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph?window=24h) | 7,184 | 99.04% ±10.6 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph?window=7d) | 62.7K | 90.35% ±3.57 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph) | 77K | 90.65% ±3.22 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photograph?window=all) | 77K | 90.65% ±3.22 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $81.20 116 coins | 20.0% | 149 | 154.2 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.13 58.76 coins | 0.5% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $24.93 35.61 coins | 0.6% | 16 | 15.4 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $17.34 24.77 coins | 2.1% | 88 | 77.1 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $15.26 21.8 coins | 0.6% | 22 | 23.1 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $13.61 19.45 coins | 0.8% | 36 | 38.5 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Golden (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-golden-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 250 | $12.28 17.54 coins | 6.1% | 321 | 308.3 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $8.47 12.1 coins | 5.2% | 363 | 385.4 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $8.11 11.58 coins | 20.0% | 1,540 | 1541.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Team SoloMid (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-solomid-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 133 | $7.53 10.76 coins | 7.0% | 557 | 578.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $6.62 9.46 coins | 2.5% | 238 | 231.2 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 100 | $4.07 5.82 coins | 5.0% | 792 | 770.8 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.72 2.46 coins | 8.5% | 3,079 | 3083.2 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| dupreeh \| Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dupreeh-boston-2018) | 1 in 17 | $1.54 2.2 coins | 11.4% | 4,689 | 4624.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.85 1.21 coins | 6.9% | 5,197 | 5118.2 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.45 0.64 coins | 1.7% | 2,275 | 2312.4 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 19,315 | 19270.3 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 19,241 | 19270.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 19,155 | 19270.3 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) [Müsse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/M%C3%BCsse) $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 17:17 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 16:41 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 09:31 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 04:16 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 03:28 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) [daffodil](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/daffodil) $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 01:21 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 00:28 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) [Mona#Lisa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mona%23Lisa) $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-08 00:09 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) [daffodil](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/daffodil) $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-07 23:42 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.90 1.28 coins $81.90 117 coins 91.41x 2026-11-07 22:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=photograph)

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) [BritishBa1aha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BritishBa1aha) $0.89 1.27 coins $8.11 11.58 coins 9.12x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Sticker | dupreeh | Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dupreeh-boston-2018) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $1.54 2.2 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Sticker | dupreeh | Boston 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dupreeh-boston-2018) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $1.54 2.2 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [Mus1Cy SENSE!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mus1Cy%20SENSE!) $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.89 | 91.18% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.89 | 91.23% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.90 | 90.80% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.90 | 90.72% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.90 | 90.73% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $0.92 | 90.81% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.92 | 90.91% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% industrial 0.6% classified 0.0% restricted 9.0% uncommon 3.0% remarkable 1.4% exotic 0.8% mil spec 4.0% high 6.0% consumer 75.0% best hit $81.90 (91.41x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.18 on average: an expected loss of $8.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt