---
title: "Photosynthesis case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Photosynthesis ($96.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 103.09% over 239 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Photosynthesis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Photosynthesis

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis?window=all)

Price · $96.01 · 137 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $87.28 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.09% · 239 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 103.12% ±23.22 185 openings

30 days · 103.09% ±20.43 239 openings

since tracking started · 103.09% ±20.43 239 openings

44.5% 114.3% 184.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis?window=24h) | 21 | 114.19% ±69.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis?window=7d) | 185 | 103.12% ±23.2 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis) | 239 | 103.09% ±20.4 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/photosynthesis?window=all) | 239 | 103.09% ±20.4 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,472 2,103 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $421 601 coins | 9.6% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 20 | $412 589 coins | 23.6% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.34× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $378 540 coins | 13.0% | 13 | 7.2 | 1.81× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $348 497 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 11.4% | $112 160 coins | 14.6% | 15 | 27.2 | 0.55× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $111 159 coins | 10.2% | 23 | 19.1 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 10.0% | $53.17 75.95 coins | 6.1% | 30 | 23.9 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 12.0% | $49.99 71.42 coins | 6.9% | 27 | 28.7 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 15.0% | $36.93 52.75 coins | 6.3% | 35 | 35.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $18.35 26.22 coins | 3.6% | 50 | 40.6 | 1.23× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 16.0% | $7.92 11.31 coins | 1.5% | 24 | 38.2 | 0.63× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=photosynthesis)

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $18.35 26.22 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $53.17 75.95 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $53.17 75.95 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $96.01 137 coins $36.93 52.75 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $53.17 75.95 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $421 601 coins 4.38x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $111 159 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $96.01 137 coins $7.92 11.31 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $18.35 26.22 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $96.01 137 coins $378 540 coins 3.94x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $96.01 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $95.10 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $97.20 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.6% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 24.0% classified 11.4% industrial 27.0% mil spec 17.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt