--- title: "PINKY PROMISE case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "PINKY PROMISE ($42.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 87.51% over 1,106 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise rendered: 2026-11-12T01:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [PINKY PROMISE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · PINKY PROMISE A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise?window=all) Price · $42.71 · 61.02 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $38.83 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.51% · 1,106 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 107.05% ±25.87 230 openings 7 days · 88.17% ±12.85 930 openings 30 days · 87.51% ±11.79 1,106 openings since tracking started · 87.51% ±11.79 1,106 openings 74.5% 104.0% 133.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise?window=24h) | 230 | 107.05% ±25.9 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise?window=7d) | 930 | 88.17% ±12.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise) | 1,106 | 87.51% ±11.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinky-promise?window=all) | 1,106 | 87.51% ±11.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,106 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $855 1,221 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $772 1,103 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $562 803 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $465 665 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $445 635 coins | 5.7% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 133 | $295 422 coins | 5.7% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $289 413 coins | 7.4% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · epic · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 83 | $270 385 coins | 8.3% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 50 | $217 310 coins | 11.2% | 13 | 22.1 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $209 298 coins | 10.7% | 22 | 22.1 | 0.99× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $172 246 coins | 15.5% | 43 | 38.7 | 1.11× | | [Sir Bloody Miami Darryl \| The Professionals agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-miami-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 25 | $63.66 90.94 coins | 6.6% | 49 | 44.2 | 1.11× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $49.06 70.09 coins | 5.1% | 43 | 44.2 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| ropz \| Krakow 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-krakow-2017) | 1 in 18 | $43.18 61.68 coins | 6.1% | 68 | 60.8 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| nex (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nex-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 13 | $24.62 35.17 coins | 4.8% | 82 | 83.0 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| chrisJ (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrisj-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 13 | $19.20 27.43 coins | 3.7% | 81 | 83.0 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| torzsi (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) | 60.0% | $0.34 0.49 coins | 0.5% | 665 | 663.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $43.36 61.94 coins $874 1,248 coins 20.15x 2026-11-05 20:38 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [MalstR0m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MalstR0m) $42.71 61.02 coins $855 1,221 coins 20.01x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [LOOSER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LOOSER) $43.36 61.94 coins $772 1,103 coins 17.81x 2026-11-05 22:15 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $43.36 61.94 coins $565 807 coins 13.03x 2026-11-05 13:24 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Pekkatron](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pekkatron) $42.71 61.02 coins $562 803 coins 13.16x 2026-11-10 04:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pinky-promise) [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Sticker | nex (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nex-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $24.62 35.17 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 23:06 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:51 UTC [Sticker | torzsi (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-torzsi-holo-paris-2023) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $42.71 61.02 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.71 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.86 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.36 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.7% legendary 0.6% classified 5.0% epic 1.2% exotic 69.5% master 4.0% high 5.5% remarkable 7.5% best hit $874 (20.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt