---
title: "Pinned case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pinned ($3.42) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.98% from 33 items with odds, observed 91.59% over 10.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pinned](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pinned

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned?window=all)

Price · $3.42 · 4.88 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.98% · EV $3.11 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.59% · 10.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.10% ±4.34 1,076 openings

7 days · 91.61% ±1.52 9,298 openings

30 days · 91.59% ±1.41 10.8K openings

since tracking started · 91.59% ±1.41 10.8K openings

85.0% 90.0% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned?window=24h) | 1,076 | 90.10% ±4.34 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned?window=7d) | 9,298 | 91.61% ±1.52 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned) | 10.8K | 91.59% ±1.41 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pinned?window=all) | 10.8K | 91.59% ±1.41 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $596 851 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $151 216 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Valeria Phoenix Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/valeria-phoenix-pin) | 1 in 33,333 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 20,000 | $35.01 50.02 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Guardian Elite Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-elite-pin) | 1 in 10,000 | $34.16 48.8 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Dust II Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dust-ii-pin) | 1 in 2,000 | $24.80 35.43 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [Alyx Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/alyx-pin) | 1 in 1,124 | $21.72 31.03 coins | 0.6% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
| [Health Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/health-pin) | 1 in 1,111 | $19.50 27.86 coins | 0.6% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| [Civil Protection Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/civil-protection-pin) | 1 in 667 | $14.31 20.45 coins | 0.7% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× |
| [Brigadier General Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/brigadier-general-pin) | 1 in 500 | $11.65 16.65 coins | 0.8% | 28 | 21.7 | 1.29× |
| [Chroma Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-pin) | 1 in 500 | $10.97 15.67 coins | 0.7% | 22 | 21.7 | 1.02× |
| [Cache Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/cache-pin) | 1 in 1,000 | $9.70 13.86 coins | 0.3% | 21 | 10.8 | 1.94× |
| [Mirage Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/mirage-pin) | 1 in 333 | $7.64 10.92 coins | 0.7% | 35 | 32.5 | 1.08× |
| [Office Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/office-pin) | 1 in 167 | $6.18 8.83 coins | 1.2% | 72 | 65.0 | 1.11× |
| [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) | 1 in 200 | $5.87 8.39 coins | 0.9% | 36 | 54.1 | 0.66× |
| [Cobblestone Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/cobblestone-pin) | 1 in 250 | $5.41 7.73 coins | 0.7% | 50 | 43.3 | 1.15× |
| [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) | 1 in 125 | $5.06 7.23 coins | 1.3% | 86 | 86.6 | 0.99× |
| [Nuke Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuke-pin) | 1 in 50 | $4.77 6.82 coins | 3.1% | 214 | 216.6 | 0.99× |
| [Copper Lambda Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-lambda-pin) | 1 in 91 | $4.72 6.74 coins | 1.7% | 111 | 119.1 | 0.93× |
| [Bloodhound Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-pin) | 1 in 143 | $4.63 6.62 coins | 1.0% | 81 | 75.8 | 1.07× |
| [Inferno Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-pin) | 1 in 67 | $4.61 6.59 coins | 2.2% | 173 | 162.4 | 1.07× |
| [Hydra Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-pin) | 1 in 36 | $4.30 6.14 coins | 3.9% | 329 | 303.2 | 1.09× |
| [Lambda Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/lambda-pin) | 1 in 45 | $4.26 6.08 coins | 3.0% | 239 | 238.2 | 1.00× |
| [Black Mesa Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-mesa-pin) | 1 in 31 | $4.16 5.94 coins | 4.3% | 351 | 346.5 | 1.01× |
| [Victory Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/victory-pin) | 1 in 23 | $3.77 5.39 coins | 5.3% | 485 | 476.4 | 1.02× |
| [Phoenix Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/phoenix-pin) | 1 in 21 | $3.35 4.79 coins | 5.2% | 503 | 519.7 | 0.97× |
| [Guardian Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-pin) | 1 in 15 | $3.07 4.39 coins | 6.5% | 756 | 714.6 | 1.06× |
| [Overpass Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/overpass-pin) | 1 in 19 | $2.93 4.18 coins | 4.9% | 559 | 563.1 | 0.99× |
| [City 17 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/city-17-pin) | 1 in 13 | $2.83 4.05 coins | 7.3% | 894 | 866.2 | 1.03× |
| [Guardian 2 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-2-pin) | 14.0% | $2.64 3.77 coins | 11.9% | 1,458 | 1515.9 | 0.96× |
| [Easy Peasy Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/easy-peasy-pin) | 1 in 11 | $2.41 3.44 coins | 7.0% | 1,038 | 974.5 | 1.07× |
| [Inferno 2 Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-2-pin) | 20.0% | $2.41 3.44 coins | 15.5% | 2,110 | 2165.6 | 0.97× |
| [Train Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/train-pin) | 11.0% | $2.20 3.15 coins | 7.8% | 1,134 | 1191.1 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pinned)

[Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $3.42 4.88 coins $5.87 8.39 coins 1.72x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Inferno 2 Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-2-pin) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $3.42 4.88 coins $2.41 3.44 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Phoenix Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/phoenix-pin) Hidden $3.42 4.88 coins $3.35 4.79 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Hydra Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-pin) Hidden $3.42 4.88 coins $4.30 6.14 coins 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Easy Peasy Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/easy-peasy-pin) Hidden $3.42 4.88 coins $2.41 3.44 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Guardian Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-pin) Hidden $3.42 4.88 coins $3.07 4.39 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Train Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/train-pin) Hidden $3.42 4.88 coins $2.20 3.15 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Guardian 2 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-2-pin) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $3.42 4.88 coins $2.64 3.77 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Train Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/train-pin) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $3.42 4.88 coins $2.20 3.15 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Inferno 2 Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-2-pin) [mellow111.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mellow111.) $3.42 4.88 coins $2.41 3.44 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.42 | 90.98% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.37 | 90.89% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.37 | 90.90% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed high 51.8% remarkable 40.8% extraordinary 0.7% exotic 6.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.98 on average: an expected loss of $9.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt