---
title: "Piracy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Piracy ($157.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 64.13% over 117 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Piracy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Piracy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy?window=all)

Price · $157.28 · 225 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $142.98 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 64.13% · 117 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 62.17% ±38.21 111 openings

30 days · 64.13% ±37.18 117 openings

since tracking started · 64.13% ±37.18 117 openings

-0.5% 70.0% 140.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy?window=24h) | 21 | 49.56% ±90.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy?window=7d) | 111 | 62.17% ±38.2 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy) | 117 | 64.13% ±37.2 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/piracy?window=all) | 117 | 64.13% ±37.2 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $4,263 6,090 coins | 14.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,257 1,796 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $470 672 coins | 9.9% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 10.0% | $274 392 coins | 19.2% | 10 | 11.7 | 0.85× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $269 384 coins | 9.4% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-well-worn) | 10.0% | $218 311 coins | 15.2% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 10.5% | $77.00 110 coins | 5.7% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $66.79 95.42 coins | 7.0% | 22 | 17.6 | 1.25× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) | 15.0% | $46.51 66.44 coins | 4.9% | 19 | 17.6 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $41.28 58.97 coins | 4.3% | 20 | 17.6 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 15.0% | $7.04 10.05 coins | 0.7% | 21 | 17.6 | 1.20× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $158 226 coins $1,257 1,796 coins 7.94x 2026-11-08 16:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=piracy)

[P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $157 225 coins $46.51 66.44 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 00:43 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $157 225 coins $41.28 58.97 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 00:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) Hidden $157 225 coins $7.04 10.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:43 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [PaRtY bOi csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PaRtY%20bOi%20csgoroll.com) $157 225 coins $66.79 95.42 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 00:43 UTC

[P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $157 225 coins $46.51 66.44 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $157 225 coins $77.00 110 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) Hidden $157 225 coins $66.79 95.42 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $157 225 coins $77.00 110 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) Hidden $157 225 coins $66.79 95.42 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) [Dan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dan) $157 225 coins $41.28 58.97 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $157 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $158 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $158 | 90.91% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 29.5% restricted 30.5% extraordinary 10.0% classified 15.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit $1,257 (7.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt