--- title: "Pixel case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pixel ($140.26) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 74.17% over 54 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pixel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pixel A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel?window=all) Price · $140.26 · 200 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $127.51 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.17% · 54 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 40 openings · below min 30 days · 54 openings · below min since tracking started · 54 openings · below min -0.5% 73.8% 148.0% **Small sample.** 54 openings and 7.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel?window=24h) | 9 | 50.32% ±96.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel?window=7d) | 40 | 64.25% ±46.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel) | 54 | 74.17% ±39.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pixel?window=all) | 54 | 74.17% ±39.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,909 4,155 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,615 2,307 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1,285 1,835 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,257 1,796 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife) | 1 in 200 | $992 1,417 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $714 1,020 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $617 881 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $466 666 coins | 6.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $346 494 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $216 309 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $203 290 coins | 5.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $192 274 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $118 169 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $96.60 138 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $91.00 130 coins | 6.1% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.53× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $84.70 121 coins | 3.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 11.5% | $79.10 113 coins | 7.1% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 14.0% | $59.65 85.22 coins | 6.5% | 11 | 7.6 | 1.46× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 18.7% | $42.41 60.58 coins | 6.2% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $30.11 43.02 coins | 3.5% | 14 | 8.1 | 1.73× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $143 204 coins $727 1,039 coins 5.10x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $143 204 coins $622 889 coins 4.37x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $143 204 coins $622 889 coins 4.37x 2026-11-04 19:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pixel) [AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $140 200 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $42.41 60.58 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $140 200 coins $203 290 coins 1.45x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $30.11 43.02 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $140 200 coins $59.65 85.22 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $42.41 60.58 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $30.11 43.02 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $118 169 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $140 200 coins $30.11 43.02 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) Hidden $140 200 coins $91.00 130 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 05:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $140 | 90.91% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $141 | 90.91% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $143 | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 53.2% extraordinary 0.8% epic 2.5% classified 20.0% restricted 23.5% best hit $727 (5.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt