---
title: "Plan B case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Plan B ($279.74) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 67.42% over 52 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Plan B](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Plan B

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b?window=all)

Price · $279.74 · 400 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $254.31 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 67.42% · 52 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 46 openings · below min

30 days · 52 openings · below min

since tracking started · 52 openings · below min

-0.5% 176.0% 352.5%

**Small sample.** 52 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b?window=24h) | 12 | 96.36% ±255.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b?window=7d) | 46 | 70.26% ±130.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b) | 52 | 67.42% ±122.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plan-b?window=all) | 52 | 67.42% ±122.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $70K 100,000 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 400 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 20.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1,949 2,785 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 69 | $1,282 1,832 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $808 1,154 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $549 784 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $274 392 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $259 370 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $174 249 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 25.0% | $128 183 coins | 12.6% | 13 | 13.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $120 172 coins | 11.8% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) | 25.0% | $116 166 coins | 11.4% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $280 400 coins $1,282 1,832 coins 4.58x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) [Zaligon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zaligon) $281 402 coins $830 1,185 coins 2.95x 2026-11-06 07:29 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $281 402 coins $559 798 coins 1.98x 2026-11-05 15:42 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) [🟢LIVE kick/sn0wieTV GIVEAWAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2LIVE%20kick%2Fsn0wieTV%20GIVEAWAY) $281 402 coins $559 798 coins 1.98x 2026-11-05 15:28 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $280 400 coins $549 784 coins 1.96x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=plan-b)

[★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $280 400 coins $116 166 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) Hidden $280 400 coins $128 183 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $280 400 coins $549 784 coins 1.96x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $280 400 coins $120 172 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $280 400 coins $120 172 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $280 400 coins $259 370 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $280 400 coins $174 249 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $280 400 coins $120 172 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $280 400 coins $116 166 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) Hidden $280 400 coins $128 183 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $280 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $281 | 90.91% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.3% covert 99.7% best hit $1,282 (4.58x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt