---
title: "Plated case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Plated ($26.31) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 73.61% over 411 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Plated](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Plated

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated?window=all)

Price · $26.31 · 37.59 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $23.92 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.61% · 411 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 76.55% ±19.17 304 openings

30 days · 73.61% ±16.45 411 openings

since tracking started · 73.61% ±16.45 411 openings

15.0% 100.3% 185.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (57.16% – 90.05%, 411 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated?window=24h) | 16 | 100.39% ±84.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated?window=7d) | 304 | 76.55% ±19.2 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated) | 411 | 73.61% ±16.4 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/plated?window=all) | 411 | 73.61% ±16.4 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 411 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bondik-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $980 1,400 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $390 557 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $286 409 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $234 335 coins | 22.1% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $164 234 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $110 157 coins | 25.3% | 18 | 22.6 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-phase-1) | 1 in 33 | $63.34 90.49 coins | 7.9% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.89× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $63.06 90.08 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 6.2 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $50.96 72.8 coins | 6.9% | 22 | 13.4 | 1.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $46.44 66.34 coins | 7.8% | 21 | 16.4 | 1.28× |
| [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) | 19.8% | $27.42 39.17 coins | 22.7% | 67 | 81.4 | 0.82× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 80 | 82.2 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 82 | 82.2 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 103 | 82.2 | 1.25× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=plated)

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Manz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Manz) $26.31 37.59 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $27.42 39.17 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $234 335 coins 8.91x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $27.42 39.17 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) Hidden $26.31 37.59 coins $27.42 39.17 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) [csgoroll prayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/csgoroll%20prayer) $26.31 37.59 coins $27.42 39.17 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.31 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.66 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.64 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 14.1% classified 6.0% mil spec 19.8% consumer 60.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt