---
title: "Poacher case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Poacher ($29.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 89.92% over 271 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Poacher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Poacher

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher?window=all)

Price · $29.66 · 42.37 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $26.96 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.92% · 271 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 30 openings · below min

7 days · 89.92% ±12.09 271 openings

30 days · 89.92% ±12.09 271 openings

since tracking started · 89.92% ±12.09 271 openings

77.0% 113.8% 150.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher?window=24h) | 30 | 114.05% ±35.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher?window=7d) | 271 | 89.92% ±12.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher) | 271 | 89.92% ±12.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poacher?window=all) | 271 | 89.92% ±12.1 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 271 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $342 488 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $202 289 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $175 250 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $175 250 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $96.60 138 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $86.10 123 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $77.70 111 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $77.00 110 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $72.80 104 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) | 14.0% | $69.26 98.94 coins | 36.0% | 33 | 37.9 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $64.44 92.06 coins | 15.8% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $56.07 80.1 coins | 9.4% | 18 | 12.2 | 1.48× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $51.23 73.18 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $15.44 22.06 coins | 4.0% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.11× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $14.40 20.57 coins | 3.2% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) | 22.0% | $6.91 9.87 coins | 5.6% | 64 | 59.6 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-battle-scarred) | 32.5% | $4.13 5.9 coins | 5.0% | 83 | 88.2 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=poacher)

[P2000 | Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $6.91 9.87 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $4.13 5.9 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $4.13 5.9 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[P2000 | Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $29.66 42.37 coins $6.91 9.87 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-factory-new) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $56.07 80.1 coins 1.89x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $51.23 73.18 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $4.13 5.9 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-factory-new) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $56.07 80.1 coins 1.89x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC

[SSG 08 | Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $29.66 42.37 coins $69.26 98.94 coins 2.34x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.66 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.94 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.97 | 90.90% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.1% industrial 43.9% consumer 14.0% mil spec 4.5% restricted 32.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt