---
title: "Pointy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pointy ($47.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 13 items with odds, observed 83.72% over 1,042 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pointy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pointy

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy?window=all)

Price · $47.57 · 67.95 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $43.24 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.72% · 1,042 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 83.62% ±15.98 664 openings

30 days · 83.72% ±12.77 1,042 openings

since tracking started · 83.72% ±12.77 1,042 openings

-0.5% 81.0% 162.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy?window=24h) | 22 | 74.67% ±87.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy?window=7d) | 664 | 83.62% ±16.0 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy) | 1,042 | 83.72% ±12.8 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pointy?window=all) | 1,042 | 83.72% ±12.8 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,042 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,325 1,893 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,299 1,856 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,161 1,658 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,108 1,583 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $429 613 coins | 5.0% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $314 449 coins | 21.0% | 31 | 30.1 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $310 443 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $278 397 coins | 19.3% | 15 | 31.3 | 0.48× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $195 278 coins | 20.3% | 46 | 46.9 | 0.98× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $98.70 141 coins | 18.1% | 95 | 82.8 | 1.15× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 17 | $86.80 124 coins | 12.0% | 66 | 62.5 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 75.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 783 | 781.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [BaCraMo- csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BaCraMo-%20csgoroll.com) $47.57 67.95 coins $1,775 2,535 coins 37.31x 2026-11-09 09:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pointy)

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-factory-new) [locked in robben](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/locked%20in%20robben) $47.57 67.95 coins $314 449 coins 6.61x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins $86.80 124 coins 1.82x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:20 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Shelp Jr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shelp%20Jr.) $47.57 67.95 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $47.57 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.38 | 90.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.0% extraordinary 3.0% consumer 75.0% best hit $1,775 (37.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt