---
title: "Poison case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Poison ($6.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.96% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.15% over 6,103 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Poison](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Poison

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison?window=all)

Price · $6.73 · 9.61 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.96% · EV $6.12 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.15% · 6,103 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.87% ±13.39 1,024 openings

7 days · 88.13% ±6.05 5,016 openings

30 days · 89.15% ±5.48 6,103 openings

since tracking started · 89.15% ±5.48 6,103 openings

78.0% 92.0% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison?window=24h) | 1,024 | 91.87% ±13.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison?window=7d) | 5,016 | 88.13% ±6.05 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison) | 6,103 | 89.15% ±5.48 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/poison?window=all) | 6,103 | 89.15% ±5.48 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,112 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $334 477 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| tiziaN (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tizian-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 2,000 | $141 201 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $98.70 141 coins | 0.8% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $94.50 135 coins | 7.7% | 38 | 30.6 | 1.24× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $70.70 101 coins | 16.2% | 92 | 85.6 | 1.08× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $55.92 79.89 coins | 6.4% | 42 | 42.8 | 0.98× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $49.87 71.24 coins | 9.0% | 54 | 67.2 | 0.80× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $27.22 38.88 coins | 11.1% | 128 | 152.8 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $26.26 37.52 coins | 25.8% | 362 | 366.7 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.57 7.96 coins | 5.5% | 354 | 366.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.71 5.3 coins | 4.9% | 485 | 489.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.63 3.76 coins | 3.9% | 589 | 550.1 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.11 1.58 coins | 2.2% | 729 | 733.4 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 15.7% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 2.8% | 985 | 959.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-well-worn) | 17.0% | $0.41 0.59 coins | 1.1% | 1,024 | 1039.0 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.33 0.47 coins | 1.1% | 1,225 | 1222.4 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=poison)

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-well-worn) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $6.73 9.61 coins $1.11 1.58 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $6.73 9.61 coins $94.50 135 coins 14.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) [John Pork](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/John%20Pork) $6.73 9.61 coins $3.71 5.3 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $5.57 7.96 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $6.73 9.61 coins $0.33 0.47 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $6.73 | 90.96% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.73 | 90.94% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.73 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.84 | 90.94% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.87 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 58.7% extraordinary 2.6% covert 1.8% classified 6.5% industrial 1.4% mil spec 29.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.96 on average: an expected loss of $9.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt