--- title: "Polar case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Polar ($83.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 90.73% over 1,320 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Polar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Polar A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar?window=all) Price · $83.27 · 119 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $75.69 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.73% · 1,320 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.95% ±21.74 231 openings 7 days · 91.10% ±9.70 1,155 openings 30 days · 90.73% ±9.07 1,320 openings since tracking started · 90.73% ±9.07 1,320 openings 63.5% 86.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar?window=24h) | 231 | 85.95% ±21.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar?window=7d) | 1,155 | 91.10% ±9.70 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar) | 1,320 | 90.73% ±9.07 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polar?window=all) | 1,320 | 90.73% ±9.07 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,320 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,197 5,995 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $957 1,367 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $628 897 coins | 4.1% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $274 391 coins | 10.8% | 49 | 39.6 | 1.24× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 25 | $273 390 coins | 14.4% | 52 | 52.8 | 0.98× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 44 | $242 346 coins | 7.2% | 48 | 29.7 | 1.62× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 67 | $228 326 coins | 4.5% | 11 | 19.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $183 261 coins | 7.8% | 32 | 42.9 | 0.75× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $140 200 coins | 10.2% | 67 | 72.6 | 0.92× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 19.8% | $137 196 coins | 35.9% | 267 | 261.4 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 278 | 264.0 | 1.05× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 246 | 264.0 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 262 | 264.0 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $86.21 123 coins $1,509 2,156 coins 17.51x 2026-11-06 13:07 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [stzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/stzy) $86.21 123 coins $948 1,354 coins 10.99x 2026-11-06 14:44 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [RixxyGFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/RixxyGFX) $86.21 123 coins $635 907 coins 7.37x 2026-11-07 20:23 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $86.21 123 coins $635 907 coins 7.37x 2026-11-06 11:33 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $628 897 coins 7.54x 2026-11-11 00:55 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $628 897 coins 7.54x 2026-11-10 20:13 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Cecil Tyler](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cecil%20Tyler) $83.27 119 coins $628 897 coins 7.54x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $628 897 coins 7.54x 2026-11-09 13:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=polar) [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $137 196 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Klass 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Klass%202) $83.27 119 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $228 326 coins 2.74x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [azi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/azi) $83.27 119 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $137 196 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $83.27 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $83.26 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $86.21 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 31.3% rare 3.3% extraordinary 5.5% consumer 60.0% best hit $1,509 (17.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt