--- title: "Polished case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Polished ($2.30) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.04% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.89% over 33.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Polished](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Polished A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished?window=all) Price · $2.30 · 3.29 coins Advertised RTP · 91.04% · EV $2.10 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.89% · 33.2K openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.06% ±10.06 3,125 openings 7 days · 89.66% ±3.43 28.1K openings 30 days · 88.89% ±3.17 33.2K openings since tracking started · 88.89% ±3.17 33.2K openings 71.5% 82.5% 93.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished?window=24h) | 3,125 | 82.06% ±10.1 | −1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished?window=7d) | 28.1K | 89.66% ±3.43 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished) | 33.2K | 88.89% ±3.17 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polished?window=all) | 33.2K | 88.89% ±3.17 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $184 263 coins | 8.8% | 25 | 33.2 | 0.75× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $11.32 16.17 coins | 48.6% | 2,971 | 2991.0 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $4.94 7.05 coins | 0.6% | 73 | 83.1 | 0.88× | | [Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $3.52 5.03 coins | 2.1% | 425 | 415.4 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $2.99 4.27 coins | 28.5% | 6,729 | 6646.6 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.57 3.67 coins | 11.0% | 2,986 | 2991.0 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.2% | 6,646 | 6646.6 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 6,592 | 6646.6 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,786 | 6779.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-08 16:02 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-08 14:35 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Eagle](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eagle) $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-08 13:10 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Laguigneenpersonne](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Laguigneenpersonne) $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-07 15:24 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-07 15:11 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-06 20:58 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-06 17:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-06 15:45 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-05 23:29 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [BL JoTiTu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BL%20JoTiTu) $2.33 3.33 coins $196 280 coins 84.08x 2026-11-05 17:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=polished) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 3.29 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Dekel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekel) $2.30 3.29 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 3.29 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [mellow111.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mellow111.) $2.30 3.29 coins $11.32 16.17 coins 4.91x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $2.30 3.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 3.29 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 3.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) [gaygay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gaygay) $2.30 3.29 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 3.29 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.30 3.29 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.30 | 91.04% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.30 | 90.98% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.32 | 91.00% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.33 | 90.96% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.33 | 90.88% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 29.0% mil spec 0.3% restricted 10.3% consumer 60.4% best hit $196 (84.08x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.04 on average: an expected loss of $8.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt