--- title: "Polymerization case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Polymerization ($164.26) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 93.87% over 4,294 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Polymerization](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Polymerization A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization?window=all) Price · $164.26 · 235 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $149.33 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.87% · 4,294 openings, odds method Variance · 20.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 34 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75.79% ±40.00 490 openings 7 days · 87.94% ±14.94 3,508 openings 30 days · 93.87% ±13.50 4,294 openings since tracking started · 93.87% ±13.50 4,294 openings 35.0% 75.8% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization?window=24h) | 490 | 75.79% ±40.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization?window=7d) | 3,508 | 87.94% ±14.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization) | 4,294 | 93.87% ±13.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/polymerization?window=all) | 4,294 | 93.87% ±13.5 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,294 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $12K 17,180 coins | 8.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 15.3% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,465 9,235 coins | 4.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 9.3% | 23 | 21.5 | 1.07× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 286 | $2,401 3,430 coins | 5.6% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2,230 3,185 coins | 3.0% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 11.8% | 57 | 64.4 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 286 | $1,161 1,658 coins | 2.7% | 21 | 15.0 | 1.40× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,033 1,475 coins | 3.5% | 26 | 21.5 | 1.21× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 143 | $966 1,380 coins | 4.5% | 22 | 30.1 | 0.73× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $738 1,054 coins | 3.5% | 31 | 30.1 | 1.03× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $627 896 coins | 4.6% | 55 | 47.2 | 1.16× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $611 873 coins | 4.5% | 46 | 47.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $455 650 coins | 4.0% | 48 | 55.8 | 0.86× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 67 | $397 567 coins | 4.0% | 64 | 64.4 | 0.99× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $307 438 coins | 2.7% | 49 | 55.8 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $178 254 coins | 3.0% | 114 | 107.4 | 1.06× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $174 249 coins | 2.0% | 70 | 75.1 | 0.93× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $155 221 coins | 1.8% | 74 | 75.1 | 0.98× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $113 161 coins | 1.9% | 110 | 107.4 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,214 | 1288.2 | 0.94× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,115 | 1073.5 | 1.04× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,108 | 1073.5 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) [DevoN =)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DevoN%20%3D%29) $164 235 coins $12K 17,180 coins 73.21x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $164 235 coins $12K 17,180 coins 73.21x 2026-11-09 04:24 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $165 236 coins $12K 17,180 coins 72.88x 2026-11-06 00:24 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) [tiltedfish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tiltedfish) $165 236 coins $12K 17,180 coins 72.88x 2026-11-04 10:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $164 235 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 69.44x 2026-11-11 00:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $164 235 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 69.44x 2026-11-08 19:17 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $165 236 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 69.13x 2026-11-08 08:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $165 236 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 69.13x 2026-11-07 05:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $165 236 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 69.13x 2026-11-07 00:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $165 236 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 69.13x 2026-11-07 00:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=polymerization) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $164 235 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $164 235 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $164 235 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $164 235 coins $738 1,054 coins 4.49x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $164 235 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $164 235 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $164 235 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $164 235 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $164 235 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) Hidden $164 235 coins $307 438 coins 1.87x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $165 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 10.4% covert 8.0% legendary 1.6% consumer 80.0% best hit $12K (73.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt