---
title: "Popstar case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Popstar ($18.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.86% over 3,483 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Popstar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Popstar

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar?window=all)

Price · $18.54 · 26.49 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $16.85 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.86% · 3,483 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.90% ±19.89 495 openings

7 days · 87.07% ±8.19 2,969 openings

30 days · 85.86% ±7.57 3,483 openings

since tracking started · 85.86% ±7.57 3,483 openings

63.5% 84.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar?window=24h) | 495 | 83.90% ±19.9 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar?window=7d) | 2,969 | 87.07% ±8.19 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar) | 3,483 | 85.86% ±7.57 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/popstar?window=all) | 3,483 | 85.86% ±7.57 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,483 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,583 2,262 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $277 396 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $210 300 coins | 37.4% | 96 | 104.5 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $134 192 coins | 2.4% | 12 | 10.4 | 1.15× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $50.27 71.81 coins | 29.6% | 324 | 345.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $44.47 63.53 coins | 1.8% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $36.40 52 coins | 2.2% | 41 | 34.8 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $28.39 40.56 coins | 3.4% | 78 | 69.7 | 1.12× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $21.87 31.24 coins | 0.6% | 19 | 17.4 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $21.54 30.77 coins | 5.1% | 138 | 139.3 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $14.55 20.78 coins | 1.3% | 53 | 52.2 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $12.39 17.7 coins | 5.9% | 260 | 278.6 | 0.93× |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 50 | $4.33 6.18 coins | 0.5% | 60 | 69.7 | 0.86× |
| [MAG-7 \| Memento (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-field-tested) | 12.0% | $2.62 3.74 coins | 1.9% | 421 | 418.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.91 2.73 coins | 1.7% | 508 | 522.4 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 3.8% | 1,446 | 1393.2 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=popstar)

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.91 2.73 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.91 2.73 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-field-tested) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $2.62 3.74 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $18.54 26.49 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 2.71x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.91 2.73 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.54 26.49 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.54 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.56 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.79 | 90.89% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.9% classified 10.6% Ancient 2.0% rare 2.5% restricted 44.0% mil spec 27.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt