--- title: "Postcard case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Postcard ($15.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 22 items with odds, observed 92.99% over 1,603 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Postcard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Postcard A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard?window=all) Price · $15.16 · 21.66 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $13.79 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.99% · 1,603 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.95% ±16.37 271 openings 7 days · 90.92% ±7.00 1,479 openings 30 days · 92.99% ±6.73 1,603 openings since tracking started · 92.99% ±6.73 1,603 openings 77.0% 94.0% 111.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard?window=24h) | 271 | 93.95% ±16.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard?window=7d) | 1,479 | 90.92% ±7.00 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard) | 1,603 | 92.99% ±6.73 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/postcard?window=all) | 1,603 | 92.99% ±6.73 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,603 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $293 418 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $132 188 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-queens-gambit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $118 169 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $106 151 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $105 150 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $98.00 140 coins | 6.4% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $93.80 134 coins | 9.5% | 23 | 22.4 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $67.01 95.73 coins | 8.3% | 37 | 27.3 | 1.36× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $65.09 92.98 coins | 8.0% | 28 | 27.3 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $47.31 67.59 coins | 6.5% | 34 | 30.5 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Flash Gaming (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flash-gaming-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 53 | $43.42 62.03 coins | 6.0% | 35 | 30.5 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $37.33 53.33 coins | 5.4% | 33 | 32.1 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $29.34 41.92 coins | 4.3% | 32 | 32.1 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $20.28 28.97 coins | 3.1% | 49 | 33.7 | 1.46× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $20.11 28.73 coins | 3.9% | 34 | 43.3 | 0.79× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9.86 14.09 coins | 3.5% | 83 | 78.5 | 1.06× | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $8.59 12.27 coins | 4.0% | 106 | 104.2 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) | 1 in 11 | $6.57 9.39 coins | 4.2% | 135 | 141.1 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 11.9% | $5.87 8.39 coins | 5.1% | 183 | 190.8 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 14.5% | $5.68 8.12 coins | 6.0% | 218 | 232.4 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 17.0% | $5.06 7.23 coins | 6.2% | 288 | 272.5 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 17.4% | $2.99 4.27 coins | 3.8% | 265 | 278.9 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=postcard) [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $5.68 8.12 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $5.68 8.12 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $15.16 21.66 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $9.86 14.09 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $5.87 8.39 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) Hidden $15.16 21.66 coins $5.68 8.12 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $15.16 21.66 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.16 | 90.92% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.40 | 90.92% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $15.37 | 90.91% | 22 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $15.46 | 90.90% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.41 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 17.9% epic 0.2% classified 39.0% covert 6.6% remarkable 10.7% mil spec 19.1% Legendary 6.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt