---
title: "Precision case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Precision ($4.76) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.97% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.19% over 10.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Precision](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Precision

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision?window=all)

Price · $4.76 · 6.8 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.97% · EV $4.33 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.19% · 10.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.65% ±17.79 1,073 openings

7 days · 85.23% ±6.13 8,823 openings

30 days · 85.19% ±5.55 10.8K openings

since tracking started · 85.19% ±5.55 10.8K openings

62.0% 80.5% 99.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.64% – 90.74%, 10,832 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision?window=24h) | 1,073 | 80.65% ±17.8 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision?window=7d) | 8,823 | 85.23% ±6.13 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision) | 10.8K | 85.19% ±5.55 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/precision?window=all) | 10.8K | 85.19% ±5.55 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,697 2,424 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $128 183 coins | 3.0% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $98.70 141 coins | 33.1% | 150 | 157.1 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $93.10 133 coins | 9.7% | 31 | 48.8 | 0.64× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $84.00 120 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $11.58 16.54 coins | 16.0% | 647 | 650.2 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $10.63 15.18 coins | 5.2% | 236 | 227.6 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.37 13.39 coins | 6.5% | 330 | 325.1 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $4.89 6.98 coins | 4.5% | 429 | 433.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $3.09 4.42 coins | 5.6% | 839 | 850.6 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.48 3.54 coins | 4.6% | 889 | 866.9 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1.97 2.81 coins | 3.6% | 850 | 866.9 | 0.98× |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1.77 2.53 coins | 3.3% | 879 | 866.9 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.52 0.74 coins | 1.0% | 946 | 866.9 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 11.0% | $0.40 0.57 coins | 1.0% | 1,173 | 1192.0 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.34 0.48 coins | 1.2% | 1,586 | 1625.4 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Verdant Growth (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.24 0.35 coins | 0.5% | 900 | 866.9 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.20 0.29 coins | 0.4% | 942 | 975.2 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=precision)

[P90 | Verdant Growth (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-well-worn) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $4.89 6.98 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-well-worn) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $4.76 6.8 coins $0.52 0.74 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $0.20 0.29 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) [mellow111.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mellow111.) $4.76 6.8 coins $2.48 3.54 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-battle-scarred) [Dekel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekel) $4.76 6.8 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-well-worn) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $0.52 0.74 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $0.40 0.57 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Sergeant (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-battle-scarred) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $4.76 6.8 coins $1.97 2.81 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $4.76 | 90.97% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.79 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.79 | 90.97% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.83 | 90.85% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.78 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.74 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $4.74 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $4.66 | 90.94% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.71 | 90.85% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.0% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 46.9% industrial 11.0% classified 4.0% restricted 27.0% Rare 9.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.97 on average: an expected loss of $9.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt