---
title: "Predator case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Predator ($29.76) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 86.44% over 933 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Predator](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Predator

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator?window=all)

Price · $29.76 · 42.51 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $27.05 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.44% · 933 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 41 openings · below min

7 days · 85.86% ±11.81 826 openings

30 days · 86.44% ±11.11 933 openings

since tracking started · 86.44% ±11.11 933 openings

-0.5% 51.5% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator?window=24h) | 41 | 49.71% ±53.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator?window=7d) | 826 | 85.86% ±11.8 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator) | 933 | 86.44% ±11.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/predator?window=all) | 933 | 86.44% ±11.1 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 933 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,737 2,481 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $593 847 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $557 796 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $409 584 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $186 266 coins | 34.4% | 37 | 46.7 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $107 153 coins | 7.9% | 22 | 18.7 | 1.18× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $97.30 139 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $84.70 121 coins | 25.0% | 81 | 74.6 | 1.09× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $65.25 93.21 coins | 7.2% | 25 | 28.0 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 10.0% | $23.62 33.74 coins | 8.7% | 81 | 93.3 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 11.4% | $9.34 13.34 coins | 3.9% | 99 | 106.3 | 0.93× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.51 10.73 coins | 4.2% | 140 | 139.9 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.12 5.89 coins | 1.8% | 114 | 112.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 16.0% | $2.63 3.76 coins | 1.6% | 149 | 149.3 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) | 17.0% | $1.13 1.61 coins | 0.7% | 177 | 158.6 | 1.12× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $593 847 coins 19.92x 2026-11-10 01:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=predator)

[M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $1.13 1.61 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[P250 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $23.62 33.74 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $65.25 93.21 coins 2.19x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $29.76 42.51 coins $7.51 10.73 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) [Prewtits](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Prewtits) $29.76 42.51 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) [rockorost](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/rockorost) $29.76 42.51 coins $1.13 1.61 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) [Byxan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Byxan) $29.76 42.51 coins $1.13 1.61 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.76 42.51 coins $9.34 13.34 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.76 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.52 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.20 | 90.90% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 10.1% extraordinary 0.5% classified 8.0% mil spec 27.0% restricted 39.4% consumer 15.0% best hit $593 (19.92x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt