---
title: "Prey case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prey ($0.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 13 items with odds, observed 89.07% over 58.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prey

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey?window=all)

Price · $0.89 · 1.27 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $0.81 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.07% · 58.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 37.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 90 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 96.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.97% ±13.97 7,336 openings

7 days · 89.11% ±5.33 50.5K openings

30 days · 89.07% ±4.96 58.3K openings

since tracking started · 89.07% ±4.96 58.3K openings

79.5% 94.0% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey?window=24h) | 7,336 | 93.97% ±14.0 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey?window=7d) | 50.5K | 89.11% ±5.33 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey) | 58.3K | 89.07% ±4.96 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prey?window=all) | 58.3K | 89.07% ±4.96 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $81.20 116 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $50.27 71.81 coins | 68.4% | 626 | 641.3 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $19.95 28.5 coins | 7.4% | 163 | 174.9 | 0.93× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $6.52 9.31 coins | 6.5% | 489 | 466.4 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.63 3.76 coins | 4.9% | 860 | 874.5 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.59 0.85 coins | 2.2% | 1,754 | 1749.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.41 0.58 coins | 2.5% | 2,932 | 2915.0 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.31 0.44 coins | 2.7% | 4,142 | 4081.0 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.8% | 1,281 | 1311.8 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 0.33 coins | 0.6% | 1,236 | 1166.0 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 1.9% | 14,576 | 14575.0 | 1.00× |
| [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.4% | 4,619 | 4664.0 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) | 44.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.8% | 25,618 | 25675.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.88 1.26 coins $82.60 118 coins 93.65x 2026-11-06 03:33 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) [🥦VirrezzzHD🥦](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%A5%A6VirrezzzHD%F0%9F%A5%A6) $0.88 1.26 coins $82.60 118 coins 93.65x 2026-11-03 15:10 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.88 1.26 coins $82.60 118 coins 93.65x 2026-11-03 09:18 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $81.20 116 coins 91.34x 2026-11-11 09:37 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 56.54x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 56.54x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) [skinhub.com DAggerdick](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/skinhub.com%20DAggerdick) $0.89 1.27 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 56.54x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 56.54x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) [Hepox](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hepox) $0.89 1.27 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 56.54x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 56.54x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prey)

[Nova | Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) [DriVinity](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DriVinity) $0.89 1.27 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Nova | Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Nova | Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) [DriVinity](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DriVinity) $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Nova | Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) [Purple Aki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Purple%20Aki) $0.89 1.27 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.59 0.85 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.89 1.27 coins $0.59 0.85 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.89 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.89 | 91.27% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.90 | 90.76% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.88 | 91.25% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.88 | 91.05% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.88 | 90.85% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.1% classified 0.3% restricted 10.3% mil spec 9.0% industrial 35.3% consumer 44.0% best hit $82.60 (93.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt