---
title: "Prism case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prism ($39.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 114.84% over 830 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prism](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prism

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism?window=all)

Price · $39.00 · 55.71 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $35.45 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 114.84% · 830 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82 openings · below min

7 days · 115.39% ±17.69 663 openings

30 days · 114.84% ±15.80 830 openings

since tracking started · 114.84% ±15.80 830 openings

10.5% 72.0% 133.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.04% – 130.64%, 830 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism?window=24h) | 82 | 61.88% ±50.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism?window=7d) | 663 | 115.39% ±17.7 | +2.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism) | 830 | 114.84% ±15.8 | +3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prism?window=all) | 830 | 114.84% ±15.8 | +3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 830 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,688 2,411 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $768 1,097 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $679 970 coins | 5.7% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $568 812 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $468 669 coins | 8.6% | 12 | 5.4 | 2.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $172 246 coins | 15.5% | 36 | 26.6 | 1.36× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $130 185 coins | 1.8% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.45× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $122 175 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $111 159 coins | 8.8% | 18 | 23.2 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $95.20 136 coins | 3.4% | 7 | 10.4 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $85.40 122 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $83.30 119 coins | 3.5% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.04× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $63.80 91.14 coins | 4.1% | 19 | 19.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $59.91 85.58 coins | 6.8% | 26 | 33.2 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $34.94 49.92 coins | 5.9% | 40 | 49.8 | 0.80× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $26.36 37.66 coins | 3.3% | 36 | 37.4 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $18.82 26.88 coins | 4.8% | 82 | 74.7 | 1.10× |
| [Patch \| Abandon Hope patch · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-abandon-hope) | 1 in 13 | $17.02 24.32 coins | 3.6% | 61 | 62.3 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 14.0% | $5.48 7.83 coins | 2.2% | 120 | 116.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 13.0% | $5.19 7.42 coins | 1.9% | 110 | 107.9 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.12 5.89 coins | 1.4% | 100 | 99.6 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 15.1% | $1.21 1.73 coins | 0.5% | 120 | 125.5 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $1,688 2,411 coins 43.28x 2026-11-10 05:50 UTC

[★ Karambit | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $39.76 56.8 coins $1,688 2,411 coins 42.45x 2026-11-07 10:31 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $1,050 1,500 coins 26.93x 2026-11-10 13:33 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.76 56.8 coins $813 1,162 coins 20.46x 2026-11-04 19:04 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $679 970 coins 17.41x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [NeVerLucK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/NeVerLucK) $39.00 55.71 coins $679 970 coins 17.41x 2026-11-09 18:22 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [dr cheryll erwin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dr%20cheryll%20erwin) $39.76 56.8 coins $664 949 coins 16.71x 2026-11-07 08:18 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $39.76 56.8 coins $664 949 coins 16.71x 2026-11-05 20:28 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Bazzeヅ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bazze%E3%83%85) $39.76 56.8 coins $664 949 coins 16.71x 2026-11-05 13:12 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-well-worn) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $39.76 56.8 coins $578 825 coins 14.52x 2026-11-04 09:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prism)

[P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $1.21 1.73 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $5.19 7.42 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $26.36 37.66 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [Lebra](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lebra) $39.00 55.71 coins $18.82 26.88 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC

[P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $1.21 1.73 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $39.00 55.71 coins $172 246 coins 4.42x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $39.00 55.71 coins $59.91 85.58 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.00 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.47 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.76 | 90.90% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.7% extraordinary 5.0% legendary 0.7% classified 9.0% high 7.5% #d32ee6 14.0% restricted 40.1% best hit $1,688 (43.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt