---
title: "Prisma 2 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prisma 2 ($9.47) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 37 items with odds, observed 99.88% over 2,305 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prisma 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prisma 2

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2?window=all)

Price · $9.47 · 13.53 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $8.61 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.88% · 2,305 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.80% ±42.95 103 openings

7 days · 99.56% ±9.48 2,139 openings

30 days · 99.88% ±9.13 2,305 openings

since tracking started · 99.88% ±9.13 2,305 openings

49.0% 92.8% 136.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2?window=24h) | 103 | 92.80% ±43.0 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2?window=7d) | 2,139 | 99.56% ±9.48 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2) | 2,305 | 99.88% ±9.13 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prisma-2?window=all) | 2,305 | 99.88% ±9.13 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $384 549 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $243 347 coins | 4.2% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $158 225 coins | 4.6% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $102 145 coins | 3.5% | 10 | 6.9 | 1.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $55.94 79.92 coins | 1.9% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $54.89 78.42 coins | 2.2% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $52.51 75.02 coins | 3.1% | 14 | 11.5 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $51.69 73.84 coins | 3.0% | 14 | 11.5 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $50.64 72.34 coins | 4.1% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $50.27 71.81 coins | 5.8% | 30 | 23.1 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $50.27 71.81 coins | 7.0% | 35 | 27.7 | 1.26× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $49.90 71.29 coins | 7.2% | 35 | 28.9 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $33.04 47.2 coins | 4.8% | 28 | 28.9 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $19.99 28.56 coins | 2.9% | 34 | 28.9 | 1.18× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $14.16 20.23 coins | 2.1% | 29 | 28.9 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $9.30 13.29 coins | 1.6% | 33 | 34.6 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $7.51 10.73 coins | 1.3% | 28 | 34.6 | 0.81× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $7.27 10.39 coins | 1.3% | 32 | 34.6 | 0.92× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $6.34 9.05 coins | 1.1% | 28 | 34.6 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $5.48 7.83 coins | 1.4% | 60 | 52.0 | 1.15× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $5.45 7.79 coins | 1.6% | 50 | 57.7 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $5.33 7.61 coins | 1.4% | 55 | 53.1 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $5.22 7.46 coins | 2.1% | 73 | 80.8 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $5.07 7.24 coins | 1.5% | 58 | 57.7 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.03 7.19 coins | 2.9% | 116 | 114.3 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $4.77 6.82 coins | 2.7% | 129 | 114.3 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $4.76 6.8 coins | 1.9% | 73 | 80.8 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.29 6.13 coins | 2.7% | 137 | 127.0 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $4.05 5.78 coins | 2.6% | 125 | 127.0 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.52 5.03 coins | 2.1% | 108 | 117.8 | 0.92× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $3.39 4.85 coins | 2.2% | 125 | 127.0 | 0.98× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $2.91 4.15 coins | 1.9% | 125 | 127.0 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.82 4.03 coins | 1.9% | 128 | 136.2 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $2.77 3.95 coins | 1.8% | 118 | 127.0 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.83 2.62 coins | 1.3% | 124 | 136.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-tom-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.15 1.64 coins | 0.8% | 137 | 136.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.11 1.59 coins | 0.9% | 176 | 159.3 | 1.10× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prisma-2)

[MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $4.77 6.82 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $5.03 7.19 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $5.45 7.79 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [Fuksas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuksas) $9.47 13.53 coins $1.83 2.62 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $2.82 4.03 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $2.77 3.95 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $3.52 5.03 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) [Fuksas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuksas) $9.47 13.53 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 5.31x 2026-11-11 07:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $1.11 1.59 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $9.47 13.53 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $9.47 | 90.89% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.45 | 90.91% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.18 | 90.94% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $9.04 | 90.94% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $9.04 | 90.94% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $9.04 | 90.91% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $9.04 | 90.93% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.07 | 90.90% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.6% classified 31.6% restricted 29.0% Legendary 4.0% #d32ee6 2.3% pink 2.3% #4b69ff 5.5% mil spec 18.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt