---
title: "Prismarine case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Prismarine ($41.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 84.17% over 1,122 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prismarine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prismarine

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine?window=all)

Price · $41.69 · 59.56 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $37.90 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.17% · 1,122 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 110 openings · below min

7 days · 81.93% ±17.61 922 openings

30 days · 84.17% ±15.94 1,122 openings

since tracking started · 84.17% ±15.94 1,122 openings

60.0% 112.0% 164.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine?window=24h) | 110 | 111.92% ±51.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine?window=7d) | 922 | 81.93% ±17.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine) | 1,122 | 84.17% ±15.9 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prismarine?window=all) | 1,122 | 84.17% ±15.9 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,122 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 16.4% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $533 762 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 5.6 | 1.60× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $435 622 coins | 5.7% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $424 606 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.53× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $348 497 coins | 7.3% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $300 428 coins | 9.1% | 12 | 12.9 | 0.93× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $228 326 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.53× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $160 228 coins | 3.8% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.29× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $134 192 coins | 3.5% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.80× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $110 157 coins | 11.6% | 32 | 44.9 | 0.71× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 77 | $108 154 coins | 3.7% | 18 | 14.6 | 1.23× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $71.40 102 coins | 4.7% | 22 | 28.1 | 0.78× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $46.78 66.83 coins | 2.5% | 21 | 22.4 | 0.94× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $41.38 59.11 coins | 1.6% | 19 | 16.8 | 1.13× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $41.13 58.75 coins | 3.3% | 38 | 33.7 | 1.13× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $35.25 50.35 coins | 1.7% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× |
| [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $17.09 24.41 coins | 2.7% | 85 | 67.3 | 1.26× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $16.47 23.53 coins | 2.2% | 59 | 56.1 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.21 6.01 coins | 0.9% | 79 | 89.8 | 0.88× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 19.1% | $3.82 5.45 coins | 1.9% | 240 | 213.7 | 1.12× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.32 3.31 coins | 0.9% | 158 | 168.3 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.75 2.5 coins | 0.3% | 80 | 72.9 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-module-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $1.13 1.61 coins | 0.5% | 189 | 202.0 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $43.13 61.62 coins $1,269 1,813 coins 29.42x 2026-11-06 16:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $43.15 61.65 coins $1,269 1,813 coins 29.41x 2026-11-04 17:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $43.15 61.65 coins $1,269 1,813 coins 29.41x 2026-11-04 00:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $1,241 1,773 coins 29.77x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $1,241 1,773 coins 29.77x 2026-11-09 09:12 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [tompa3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tompa3) $43.13 61.62 coins $535 764 coins 12.40x 2026-11-06 23:22 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $43.13 61.62 coins $535 764 coins 12.40x 2026-11-06 20:17 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $43.15 61.65 coins $535 764 coins 12.39x 2026-11-04 13:55 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $43.15 61.65 coins $535 764 coins 12.39x 2026-11-03 19:59 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $43.15 61.65 coins $535 764 coins 12.39x 2026-11-03 19:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prismarine)

[P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-well-worn) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $300 428 coins 7.19x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $41.69 59.56 coins $41.38 59.11 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Surfwood (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-well-worn) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $3.82 5.45 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[P2000 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $71.40 102 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $2.32 3.31 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-minimal-wear) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $41.69 59.56 coins $4.21 6.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $41.69 59.56 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-well-worn) Hidden $41.69 59.56 coins $46.78 66.83 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $41.69 59.56 coins $160 228 coins 3.83x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $41.69 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $41.70 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.46 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $43.13 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $43.15 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $43.15 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.20 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.5% covert 9.4% restricted 4.1% extraordinary 2.9% rare 1.0% mil spec 61.5% consumer 20.5% best hit $1,269 (29.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt