--- title: "Profit Farm case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Profit Farm ($0.32) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.29% from 17 items with odds, observed 101.66% over 106K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm rendered: 2026-11-11T19:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Profit Farm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Profit Farm A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm?window=all) Price · $0.32 · 0.45 coins Advertised RTP · 90.29% · EV $0.28 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.66% · 106K openings, odds method Variance · 783.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12,420 openings · below min 7 days · 99.36% ±18.75 87.2K openings 30 days · 101.66% ±17.04 106K openings since tracking started · 101.66% ±17.04 106K openings 21.0% 71.0% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm?window=24h) | 12.4K | 70.98% ±49.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm?window=7d) | 87.2K | 99.36% ±18.7 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm) | 106K | 101.66% ±17.0 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-farm?window=all) | 106K | 101.66% ±17.0 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $552 788 coins | 19.4% | 18 | 10.6 | 1.70× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 571 coins | 14.1% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $377 539 coins | 13.3% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $207 296 coins | 7.3% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $156 223 coins | 5.5% | 10 | 10.6 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $153 218 coins | 5.4% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $147 210 coins | 5.2% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $142 203 coins | 5.0% | 6 | 10.6 | 0.57× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $126 180 coins | 4.4% | 12 | 10.6 | 1.13× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $62.39 89.13 coins | 4.4% | 17 | 21.2 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $61.05 87.22 coins | 4.3% | 19 | 21.2 | 0.90× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $38.91 55.59 coins | 2.7% | 23 | 21.2 | 1.09× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $35.33 50.47 coins | 1.2% | 17 | 10.6 | 1.60× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $32.44 46.34 coins | 2.3% | 23 | 21.2 | 1.09× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $27.38 39.11 coins | 1.9% | 29 | 21.2 | 1.37× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 49.8% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 2.5% | 52,821 | 52757.6 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.2% | 52,891 | 52969.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-08 05:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [maou](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/maou) $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-07 22:54 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-07 22:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-07 13:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-06 08:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-06 08:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-04 23:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-04 22:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $561 802 coins 1,782x 2026-11-04 00:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=profit-farm) [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) [DezzyM8](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DezzyM8) $0.32 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) [Hambrieto](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hambrieto) $0.32 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.32 0.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.32 | 90.29% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.32 | 90.72% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.32 | 91.59% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.0% covert 0.1% red 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% consumer 99.8% best hit $561 (1,782x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.29 on average: an expected loss of $9.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt