---
title: "Profit Paradise case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Profit Paradise ($3.26) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.85% from 27 items with odds, observed 93.09% over 44.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Profit Paradise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Profit Paradise

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise?window=all)

Price · $3.26 · 4.66 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.85% · EV $2.96 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.09% · 44.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.54% ±8.86 4,858 openings

7 days · 92.67% ±3.26 36.6K openings

30 days · 93.09% ±2.95 44.9K openings

since tracking started · 93.09% ±2.95 44.9K openings

83.0% 92.5% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise?window=24h) | 4,858 | 92.54% ±8.86 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise?window=7d) | 36.6K | 92.67% ±3.26 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise) | 44.9K | 93.09% ±2.95 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-paradise?window=all) | 44.9K | 93.09% ±2.95 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $188 268 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $177 253 coins | 3.0% | 30 | 22.5 | 1.33× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $113 161 coins | 23.2% | 283 | 274.3 | 1.03× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $62.39 89.13 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $52.65 75.22 coins | 0.1% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $42.41 60.58 coins | 0.4% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $28.72 41.03 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $24.52 35.03 coins | 16.5% | 883 | 899.4 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $21.95 31.35 coins | 0.1% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.56× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 0.1% | 17 | 13.5 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $12.48 17.83 coins | 0.2% | 20 | 22.5 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $11.77 16.82 coins | 4.0% | 476 | 449.7 | 1.06× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $11.74 16.77 coins | 4.0% | 467 | 449.7 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 1.8% | 253 | 224.8 | 1.13× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $5.22 7.46 coins | 7.0% | 1,850 | 1798.8 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $4.71 6.73 coins | 1.1% | 313 | 314.8 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4.31 6.15 coins | 1.5% | 397 | 449.7 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.12 5.89 coins | 4.2% | 1,411 | 1349.1 | 1.05× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.91 5.58 coins | 4.0% | 1,379 | 1349.1 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.75 5.36 coins | 3.8% | 1,370 | 1349.1 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.52 5.03 coins | 4.8% | 1,843 | 1798.8 | 1.02× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.10 3 coins | 2.8% | 1,817 | 1798.8 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.88 2.68 coins | 4.4% | 3,192 | 3147.9 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.26 1.8 coins | 4.7% | 4,944 | 4946.7 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.15 1.65 coins | 2.7% | 3,038 | 3147.9 | 0.97× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.34 0.48 coins | 0.8% | 3,073 | 3147.9 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.34 0.48 coins | 4.5% | 17,889 | 17988.0 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) [GR3ALY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/GR3ALY) $3.24 4.63 coins $188 268 coins 57.88x 2026-11-09 14:06 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-11 02:40 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-10 01:09 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-10 00:18 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $177 253 coins 54.29x 2026-11-09 22:13 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.24 4.63 coins $177 253 coins 54.64x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=profit-paradise)

[P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) [MaNTaS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MaNTaS) $3.26 4.66 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $24.52 35.03 coins 7.52x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) [MaNTaS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MaNTaS) $3.26 4.66 coins $1.15 1.65 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Reboot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-minimal-wear) [Solatyre](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Solatyre) $3.26 4.66 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 21:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $1.26 1.8 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 21:59 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) [playerman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/playerman) $3.26 4.66 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:59 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) [jeziskristus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/jeziskristus) $3.26 4.66 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $1.26 1.8 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 21:58 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 4.66 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.26 | 90.85% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $3.24 | 90.97% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.24 | 90.96% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.23 | 90.98% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.21 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $3.21 | 90.88% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.21 | 90.85% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.21 | 90.88% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $3.20 | 90.84% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.19 | 91.00% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% classified 9.6% mil spec 50.0% consumer 11.7% restricted 21.0% Mythical 7.0% best hit $188 (57.88x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.85 on average: an expected loss of $9.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt