---
title: "Profit Pursuit case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Profit Pursuit ($17.35) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 14 items with odds, observed 86.86% over 1,604 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Profit Pursuit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Profit Pursuit

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit?window=all)

Price · $17.35 · 24.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $15.77 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.86% · 1,604 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.41% ±24.64 135 openings

7 days · 83.24% ±8.08 1,281 openings

30 days · 86.86% ±7.23 1,604 openings

since tracking started · 86.86% ±7.23 1,604 openings

57.0% 82.3% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit?window=24h) | 135 | 82.41% ±24.6 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit?window=7d) | 1,281 | 83.24% ±8.08 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit) | 1,604 | 86.86% ±7.23 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/profit-pursuit?window=all) | 1,604 | 86.86% ±7.23 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,604 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $440 628 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $360 514 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $337 482 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $235 336 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $99.40 142 coins | 31.5% | 75 | 80.2 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $49.23 70.33 coins | 9.4% | 50 | 48.1 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $39.78 56.83 coins | 7.6% | 53 | 48.1 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 10.8% | $26.89 38.42 coins | 18.5% | 176 | 173.9 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.36 27.66 coins | 12.3% | 149 | 160.4 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.62 18.03 coins | 8.0% | 160 | 160.4 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.07 12.95 coins | 5.7% | 160 | 160.4 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 2.2% | 253 | 240.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $1.02 1.45 coins | 1.0% | 239 | 240.6 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.92 1.31 coins | 1.0% | 289 | 288.7 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=profit-pursuit)

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $49.23 70.33 coins 2.84x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $9.07 12.95 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $26.89 38.42 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) [Señor WAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Se%C3%B1or%20WAC) $17.35 24.78 coins $19.36 27.66 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $1.02 1.45 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 2.29x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $17.35 24.78 coins $26.89 38.42 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $17.35 | 90.93% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.37 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.78 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $16.66 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $16.65 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.66 | 90.90% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.2% mil spec 6.0% restricted 68.8% classified 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt