--- title: "Prohibited case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prohibited ($35.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 93.45% over 631 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited rendered: 2026-11-11T19:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prohibited](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prohibited A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited?window=all) Price · $35.90 · 51.28 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $32.64 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.45% · 631 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 91.95% ±8.28 545 openings 30 days · 93.45% ±7.69 631 openings since tracking started · 93.45% ±7.69 631 openings 55.5% 78.8% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited?window=24h) | 76 | 78.53% ±22.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited?window=7d) | 545 | 91.95% ±8.28 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited) | 631 | 93.45% ±7.69 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prohibited?window=all) | 631 | 93.45% ±7.69 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,100 1,571 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 1,887 | $289 413 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $288 412 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $231 330 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $159 227 coins | 3.9% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $118 169 coins | 3.6% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $111 159 coins | 3.4% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $104 149 coins | 5.3% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.15× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $91.70 131 coins | 5.3% | 16 | 11.9 | 1.35× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $78.40 112 coins | 5.5% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $71.40 102 coins | 6.0% | 12 | 17.4 | 0.69× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $63.32 90.46 coins | 5.3% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× | | [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $45.86 65.52 coins | 9.6% | 41 | 42.9 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 16.8% | $36.25 51.78 coins | 18.7% | 97 | 106.0 | 0.92× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-battle-scarred) | 16.8% | $27.05 38.65 coins | 13.9% | 122 | 106.0 | 1.15× | | [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 16.8% | $9.43 13.47 coins | 4.9% | 132 | 106.0 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Styx (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-battle-scarred) | 27.8% | $9.16 13.08 coins | 7.8% | 142 | 175.4 | 0.81× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prohibited) [Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.16 13.08 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.43 13.47 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.43 13.47 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-battle-scarred) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $35.90 51.28 coins $27.05 38.65 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $27.05 38.65 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.43 13.47 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.16 13.08 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.16 13.08 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-styx-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.90 51.28 coins $9.16 13.08 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-field-tested) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $35.90 51.28 coins $9.43 13.47 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $35.90 | 90.92% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.99 | 90.92% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.92 | 90.90% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $37.35 | 90.90% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.37 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.9% classified 41.4% restricted 28.1% rare 1.6% covert 3.6% mil spec 6.8% industrial 16.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt