---
title: "Projection case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Projection ($264.35) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 76.84% over 874 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Projection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Projection

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection?window=all)

Price · $264.35 · 378 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $240.33 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.84% · 874 openings, odds method

Variance · 45.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 99 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92 openings · below min

7 days · 57.89% ±53.43 608 openings

30 days · 76.84% ±44.55 874 openings

since tracking started · 76.84% ±44.55 874 openings

-0.5% 76.0% 152.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection?window=24h) | 92 | 14.46% ±137.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection?window=7d) | 608 | 57.89% ±53.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection) | 874 | 76.84% ±44.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/projection?window=all) | 874 | 76.84% ±44.5 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $70K 100,000 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-titan-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $28K 40,000 coins | 11.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 29.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 14.6% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $6,650 9,500 coins | 13.8% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 12.4% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,450 3,500 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1,407 2,010 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $628 897 coins | 1.3% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.83× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $409 584 coins | 1.7% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.04× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 191 | 174.8 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 201 | 218.5 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Army Recon (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 213 | 218.5 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 231 | 218.5 | 1.06× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-titan-holo-minimal-wear) Hidden $265 379 coins $28K 40,000 coins 105.7x 2026-11-04 00:25 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $264 378 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 66.53x 2026-11-08 21:33 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $265 379 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 66.37x 2026-11-04 02:56 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $265 379 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 66.37x 2026-11-04 02:51 UTC

[Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $265 379 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 66.37x 2026-11-04 02:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $265 379 coins $6,916 9,880 coins 26.10x 2026-11-08 02:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $265 379 coins $6,916 9,880 coins 26.10x 2026-11-04 00:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $265 379 coins $6,916 9,880 coins 26.10x 2026-11-03 11:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) [kick/johncs LIVE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kick%2Fjohncs%20LIVE) $264 378 coins $6,650 9,500 coins 25.16x 2026-11-09 00:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) Hidden $264 378 coins $6,650 9,500 coins 25.16x 2026-11-08 21:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=projection)

[AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-minimal-wear) [sasz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sasz) $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $264 378 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

[MP7 | Army Recon (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) [sasz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sasz) $264 378 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 378 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $264 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $265 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 2.0% contraband 0.5% covert 2.0% extraordinary 0.5% consumer 70.0% #777777 25.0% best hit $28K (105.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt