---
title: "Prospector case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Prospector ($1.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.14% from 13 items with odds, observed 90.01% over 37.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prospector](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prospector

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector?window=all)

Price · $1.00 · 1.43 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.14% · EV $0.91 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.01% · 37.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.68% ±8.81 4,247 openings

7 days · 89.60% ±3.23 31K openings

30 days · 90.01% ±2.95 37.1K openings

since tracking started · 90.01% ±2.95 37.1K openings

79.0% 88.5% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector?window=24h) | 4,247 | 88.68% ±8.81 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector?window=7d) | 31K | 89.60% ±3.23 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector) | 37.1K | 90.01% ±2.95 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prospector?window=all) | 37.1K | 90.01% ±2.95 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $34.25 48.93 coins | 7.5% | 71 | 74.3 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $30.51 43.58 coins | 10.0% | 89 | 111.4 | 0.80× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 23.7% | 789 | 742.8 | 1.06× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.73 8.18 coins | 18.8% | 1,091 | 1114.2 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $5.62 8.03 coins | 9.2% | 555 | 557.1 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $3.94 5.63 coins | 10.8% | 947 | 928.5 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.28 1.83 coins | 4.9% | 1,348 | 1299.9 | 1.04× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.03 1.47 coins | 4.5% | 1,396 | 1485.6 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.42 0.6 coins | 2.8% | 2,255 | 2228.5 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 0.44 coins | 1.7% | 1,910 | 1857.1 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-battle-scarred) | 22.0% | $0.19 0.27 coins | 4.6% | 8,109 | 8171.0 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.05 0.07 coins | 1.0% | 6,982 | 7056.8 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 31.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 11,599 | 11513.7 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prospector)

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [DingDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DingDong) $1.00 1.43 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $0.05 0.07 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) [whitecottomasta](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/whitecottomasta) $1.00 1.43 coins $5.62 8.03 coins 5.62x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) [Pilu bzw.VioLLin csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pilu%20bzw.VioLLin%20csgoroll.com) $1.00 1.43 coins $5.62 8.03 coins 5.62x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $0.05 0.07 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 1.43 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.00 | 91.14% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.01 | 90.77% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.01 | 90.62% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $0.98 | 91.17% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.98 | 91.21% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $0.98 | 91.13% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.99 | 90.70% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 5.7% covert 0.3% restricted 17.0% mil spec 27.0% industrial 19.0% consumer 31.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.14 on average: an expected loss of $8.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt