--- title: "Prototype case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Prototype ($4.76) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.97% over 9,652 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Prototype](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Prototype A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype?window=all) Price · $4.76 · 6.8 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $4.33 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.97% · 9,652 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.63% ±10.96 1,373 openings 7 days · 91.60% ±4.50 8,102 openings 30 days · 89.97% ±4.13 9,652 openings since tracking started · 89.97% ±4.13 9,652 openings 80.0% 91.5% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype?window=24h) | 1,373 | 91.63% ±11.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype?window=7d) | 8,102 | 91.60% ±4.50 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype) | 9,652 | 89.97% ±4.13 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/prototype?window=all) | 9,652 | 89.97% ±4.13 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,658 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $57.46 82.08 coins | 26.6% | 189 | 193.2 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 3.8% | 39 | 48.3 | 0.81× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.89 38.42 coins | 31.1% | 476 | 482.9 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $13.61 19.44 coins | 3.1% | 92 | 96.6 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.37 10.53 coins | 8.5% | 480 | 482.9 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $6.99 9.99 coins | 3.2% | 217 | 193.2 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $4.90 7 coins | 5.7% | 521 | 482.9 | 1.08× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 11.5% | $2.93 4.19 coins | 7.8% | 1,122 | 1110.7 | 1.01× | | [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.70 2.43 coins | 3.1% | 792 | 772.6 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.51 2.15 coins | 7.0% | 1,895 | 1931.6 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 3,835 | 3863.2 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=prototype) [CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) [User#181](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23181) $4.76 6.8 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $4.90 7 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.76 6.8 coins $1.70 2.43 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) [John Pork](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/John%20Pork) $4.76 6.8 coins $1.51 2.15 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $4.76 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.84 | 90.90% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.54 | 90.95% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $4.50 | 90.94% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.44 | 90.88% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% restricted 14.0% industrial 5.0% mil spec 13.5% classified 5.0% milspec 20.0% consumer 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt