--- title: "Psycho case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Psycho ($176.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 98.51% over 3,394 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Psycho](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Psycho A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho?window=all) Price · $176.23 · 252 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $160.20 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.51% · 3,394 openings, odds method Variance · 37.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 111 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 544 openings · below min 7 days · 100.18% ±23.13 2,687 openings 30 days · 98.51% ±20.56 3,394 openings since tracking started · 98.51% ±20.56 3,394 openings 40.0% 92.3% 144.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho?window=24h) | 544 | 92.42% ±51.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho?window=7d) | 2,687 | 100.18% ±23.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho) | 3,394 | 98.51% ±20.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psycho?window=all) | 3,394 | 98.51% ±20.6 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,396 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 8.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 11.1% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 15.4% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.30× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 3.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $5,684 8,120 coins | 12.4% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 16.1% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1,928 2,755 coins | 7.2% | 18 | 20.4 | 0.88× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $1,639 2,341 coins | 10.2% | 43 | 34.0 | 1.27× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 8.5% | 36 | 34.0 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 6.7% | 38 | 34.0 | 1.12× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,243 | 1188.6 | 1.05× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 971 | 1018.8 | 0.95× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 996 | 1018.8 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $177 252 coins $27.5K 39,250 coins 155.6x 2026-11-03 15:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $176 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.53x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $176 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.53x 2026-11-10 12:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $176 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.53x 2026-11-09 03:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $177 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.39x 2026-11-07 18:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $177 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.39x 2026-11-07 06:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $177 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.39x 2026-11-07 02:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $177 252 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 67.39x 2026-11-03 12:27 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $176 252 coins $9,856 14,080 coins 55.93x 2026-11-10 13:55 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $176 252 coins $9,856 14,080 coins 55.93x 2026-11-09 22:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=psycho) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $176 252 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $176 252 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $177 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 2.0% covert 2.5% contraband 0.5% consumer 95.0% best hit $27.5K (155.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt