---
title: "Psychotic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Psychotic ($85.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 81.96% over 105 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Psychotic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Psychotic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic?window=all)

Price · $85.93 · 123 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $78.12 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.96% · 105 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 83 openings · below min

30 days · 81.96% ±32.82 105 openings

since tracking started · 81.96% ±32.82 105 openings

48.5% 86.5% 124.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic?window=7d) | 83 | 86.86% ±36.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic) | 105 | 81.96% ±32.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psychotic?window=all) | 105 | 81.96% ±32.8 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 105 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $2,895 4,135 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,064 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $952 1,360 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $820 1,171 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $473 676 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $454 648 coins | 9.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $377 539 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $292 417 coins | 8.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $219 313 coins | 7.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $167 239 coins | 6.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $130 185 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $122 175 coins | 6.0% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $92.40 132 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $78.40 112 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $63.25 90.36 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.19× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $59.74 85.34 coins | 4.2% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $30.74 43.91 coins | 2.3% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $28.43 40.61 coins | 3.0% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.29× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-battle-scarred) | 11.2% | $19.98 28.54 coins | 2.9% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-shattered-minimal-wear) | 15.7% | $12.23 17.47 coins | 2.5% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 19.5% | $9.44 13.48 coins | 2.4% | 26 | 20.5 | 1.27× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $86.41 123 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 20.58x 2026-11-03 02:11 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $820 1,171 coins 9.54x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [coco](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/coco) $86.62 124 coins $500 715 coins 5.78x 2026-11-06 11:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=psychotic)

[MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $820 1,171 coins 9.54x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $19.98 28.54 coins 0.23x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $130 185 coins 1.51x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $28.43 40.61 coins 0.33x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $30.74 43.91 coins 0.36x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [meÇa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/me%C3%87a) $85.93 123 coins $122 175 coins 1.43x 2026-11-09 21:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [berg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/berg) $85.93 123 coins $9.44 13.48 coins 0.11x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $28.43 40.61 coins 0.33x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Daybreak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-field-tested) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $454 648 coins 5.28x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.93 123 coins $9.44 13.48 coins 0.11x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $85.93 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.53 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $85.76 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $86.60 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $86.62 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $86.41 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% covert 18.5% mil spec 31.4% restricted 29.0% classified 8.2% industrial 4.7% rare 8.1% best hit $1,778 (20.58x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt