--- title: "Psyop case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Psyop ($518.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 26 items with odds, observed 38.69% over 46 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Psyop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Psyop A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop?window=all) Price · $518.21 · 740 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $471.10 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 38.69% · 46 openings, odds method Variance · 20.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 42 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 46 openings · below min since tracking started · 46 openings · below min -0.5% 84.5% 169.5% **Small sample.** 46 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop?window=7d) | 46 | 38.69% ±129.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop) | 46 | 38.69% ±129.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/psyop?window=all) | 46 | 38.69% ±129.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $70K 100,000 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new-titan-holo-3x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $56K 80,000 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $22.8K 32,500 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $9,870 14,100 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $8,677 12,395 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $5,684 8,120 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $5,548 7,925 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 80 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3,024 4,320 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 125 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 87 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,170 1,672 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $1,142 1,632 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 45 | $1,121 1,602 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 15 | 18.4 | 0.82× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 24 | 20.7 | 1.16× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $525 750 coins $2,170 3,100 coins 4.14x 2026-11-07 18:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [v1adislav\_lets](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/v1adislav_lets) $525 750 coins $1,232 1,760 coins 2.35x 2026-11-07 06:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $525 750 coins $1,232 1,760 coins 2.35x 2026-11-07 06:34 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $525 750 coins $1,224 1,748 coins 2.33x 2026-11-05 19:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $518 740 coins $1,170 1,672 coins 2.26x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $518 740 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 2.20x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $518 740 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 2.20x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=psyop) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [VitaliyOnis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/VitaliyOnis) $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $518 740 coins $1,170 1,672 coins 2.26x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $518 740 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 2.20x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $518 740 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $518 740 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 2.20x 2026-11-09 09:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $518 | 90.91% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $525 | 90.91% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.5% extraordinary 1.9% remarkable 0.1% covert 8.5% contraband 0.4% high 1.3% epic 1.5% consumer 85.0% best hit $2,170 (4.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt