---
title: "Pumpking case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pumpking ($19.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 21 items with odds, observed 88.16% over 6,079 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pumpking](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pumpking

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking?window=all)

Price · $19.87 · 28.38 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $18.06 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.16% · 6,079 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.38% ±14.70 545 openings

7 days · 87.96% ±4.68 5,378 openings

30 days · 88.16% ±4.40 6,079 openings

since tracking started · 88.16% ±4.40 6,079 openings

65.0% 80.3% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking?window=24h) | 545 | 80.38% ±14.7 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking?window=7d) | 5,378 | 87.96% ±4.68 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking) | 6,079 | 88.16% ±4.40 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pumpking?window=all) | 6,079 | 88.16% ±4.40 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,095 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $347 495 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $272 388 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $196 280 coins | 5.4% | 35 | 30.5 | 1.15× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $181 258 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $137 196 coins | 15.2% | 111 | 121.9 | 0.91× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $127 181 coins | 9.8% | 80 | 85.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $120 171 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $95.90 137 coins | 8.5% | 81 | 97.5 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $81.90 117 coins | 11.3% | 145 | 152.4 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $80.50 115 coins | 7.6% | 96 | 103.6 | 0.93× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $73.50 105 coins | 4.7% | 88 | 70.1 | 1.26× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $63.09 90.13 coins | 6.6% | 117 | 115.8 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $25.33 36.19 coins | 5.6% | 243 | 243.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.42 17.75 coins | 2.8% | 245 | 243.8 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 11.0% | $11.41 16.3 coins | 7.0% | 680 | 670.5 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 33 | $10.75 15.36 coins | 1.8% | 170 | 182.8 | 0.93× |
| [M249 \| Impact Drill (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.50 9.29 coins | 2.5% | 456 | 426.7 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 13.0% | $4.94 7.05 coins | 3.6% | 801 | 792.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| JW \| Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-cologne-2016) | 14.0% | $2.20 3.15 coins | 1.7% | 825 | 853.3 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.94 2.77 coins | 1.6% | 941 | 914.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 16.0% | $1.60 2.28 coins | 1.4% | 970 | 975.2 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pumpking)

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $1.94 2.77 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[M249 | Impact Drill (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $19.87 28.38 coins $6.50 9.29 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $12.42 17.75 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $10.75 15.36 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $11.41 16.3 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $11.41 16.3 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $19.87 28.38 coins $11.41 16.3 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $4.94 7.05 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $1.60 2.28 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) Hidden $19.87 28.38 coins $4.94 7.05 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $19.87 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $19.88 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.89 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.99 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $20.04 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.04 | 90.90% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.7% classified 34.5% restricted 36.7% extraordinary 1.1% #eb4b4b 3.0% consumer 7.0% high 14.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt