--- title: "Question case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Question ($55.03) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 80.53% over 49 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question rendered: 2026-11-11T15:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Question](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Question A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question?window=all) Price · $55.03 · 78.61 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $50.03 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.53% · 49 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 43 openings · below min 30 days · 49 openings · below min since tracking started · 49 openings · below min -0.5% 123.0% 246.5% **Small sample.** 49 openings and 18.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question?window=24h) | 3 | 98.80% ±147.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question?window=7d) | 43 | 86.53% ±38.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question) | 49 | 80.53% ±36.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/question?window=all) | 49 | 80.53% ±36.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,212 1,732 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $947 1,353 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $334 477 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $159 227 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $97.30 139 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.27× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $81.90 117 coins | 6.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $79.10 113 coins | 14.2% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $63.06 90.09 coins | 25.2% | 9 | 9.8 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 12.0% | $55.67 79.53 coins | 13.4% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $40.24 57.48 coins | 20.1% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 25.6% | $2.09 2.99 coins | 1.1% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=question) [P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $81.90 117 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 04:51 UTC [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) [Gohan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gohan) $55.03 78.61 coins $79.10 113 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 04:51 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $40.24 57.48 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $40.24 57.48 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $40.24 57.48 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $55.67 79.53 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.03 78.61 coins $63.06 90.09 coins 1.15x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $55.03 78.61 coins $55.67 79.53 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC [P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [haden](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/haden) $55.03 78.61 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 00:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $55.03 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $55.00 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $55.41 | 90.91% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $55.62 | 90.91% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $55.59 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $55.58 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.9% mil spec 55.1% classified 16.0% restricted 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt