---
title: "Quinquennium case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Quinquennium ($57.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 73.15% over 1,251 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Quinquennium](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Quinquennium

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium?window=all)

Price · $57.69 · 82.41 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $52.44 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.15% · 1,251 openings, odds method

Variance · 34.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 40 openings · below min

7 days · 74.53% ±33.24 1,182 openings

30 days · 73.15% ±32.29 1,251 openings

since tracking started · 73.15% ±32.29 1,251 openings

-0.5% 122.8% 246.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium?window=24h) | 40 | 63.86% ±181.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium?window=7d) | 1,182 | 74.53% ±33.2 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium) | 1,251 | 73.15% ±32.3 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/quinquennium?window=all) | 1,251 | 73.15% ±32.3 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,251 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,888 9,840 coins | 6.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,335 9,050 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,281 6,115 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 67 | $356 508 coins | 10.2% | 23 | 18.8 | 1.23× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 33 | $337 482 coins | 19.3% | 30 | 37.5 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $46.44 66.34 coins | 13.3% | 175 | 187.7 | 0.93× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 10.3% | $42.11 60.15 coins | 8.3% | 122 | 128.7 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 15.0% | $33.31 47.59 coins | 9.5% | 203 | 187.7 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) | 15.0% | $16.49 23.55 coins | 4.7% | 213 | 187.7 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 25.0% | $12.48 17.83 coins | 5.9% | 317 | 312.8 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 167 | 187.7 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [hermano](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hermano) $57.69 82.41 coins $6,888 9,840 coins 119.4x 2026-11-09 02:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=quinquennium)

[Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) [Sprellarinn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sprellarinn) $57.69 82.41 coins $42.11 60.15 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) [Sprellarinn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sprellarinn) $57.69 82.41 coins $16.49 23.55 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.69 82.41 coins $46.44 66.34 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.69 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.55 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.18 | 90.91% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 30.0% classified 55.0% consumer 15.0% best hit $6,888 (119.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt