--- title: "Radiation case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Radiation ($181.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 74.29% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation rendered: 2026-11-11T22:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Radiation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Radiation A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation?window=all) Price · $181.69 · 260 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $165.17 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.29% · 34 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min -0.5% 67.8% 136.0% **Small sample.** 34 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation?window=7d) | 20 | 48.32% ±79.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation) | 34 | 74.29% ±61.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/radiation?window=all) | 34 | 74.29% ±61.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1,900 2,715 coins | 17.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $1,543 2,204 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 91 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,170 1,672 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $856 1,223 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 125 | $533 762 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $517 738 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $433 619 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $323 461 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $197 281 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 45 | $194 277 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $192 274 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $142 203 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $122 175 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $88.20 126 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $86.10 123 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $85.40 122 coins | 10.3% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $75.60 108 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $66.68 95.26 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $47.80 68.28 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 24.8% | $42.24 60.34 coins | 6.3% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $185 265 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 10.34x 2026-11-04 12:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=radiation) [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $182 260 coins $88.20 126 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 260 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 260 coins $192 274 coins 1.06x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $182 260 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 260 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $182 260 coins $197 281 coins 1.08x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) Hidden $182 260 coins $66.68 95.26 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $182 260 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) Hidden $182 260 coins $66.68 95.26 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 260 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 00:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $183 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $185 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 11.3% covert 58.6% remarkable 1.1% mil spec 20.0% restricted 9.0% best hit $1,914 (10.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt