--- title: "Rain case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rain ($2,319.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 58.89% over 69 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rain A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain?window=all) Price · $2,319.29 · 3,313 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $2,108.44 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.89% · 69 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 58 openings · below min 30 days · 69 openings · below min since tracking started · 69 openings · below min -0.5% 125.0% 250.5% **Small sample.** 69 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain?window=24h) | 6 | 41.99% ±207.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain?window=7d) | 58 | 51.20% ±66.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain) | 69 | 58.89% ±60.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rain?window=all) | 69 | 58.89% ±60.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $105K 150,000 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $70K 100,000 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new-titan-holo-3x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $56K 80,000 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x IBP (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-ibp-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $26.3K 37,500 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $9,370 13,385 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 143 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 25 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 5.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.81× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 29 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 15 | $1,446 2,065 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 10.0% | $1,387 1,982 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20 | $1,299 1,855 coins | 3.1% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.74× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $878 1,254 coins | 3.3% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $783 1,119 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [Sticker \| rain (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-boston-2018) | 19.3% | $704 1,005 coins | 6.5% | 16 | 13.3 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 12.0% | $701 1,001 coins | 4.0% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 14.0% | $302 432 coins | 2.0% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.14× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) [Peach Panther](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Peach%20Panther) $2,353 3,361 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 5.06x 2026-11-04 08:55 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,353 3,361 coins $9,720 13,885 coins 4.13x 2026-11-06 23:39 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) [Fslayer90](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fslayer90) $2,353 3,361 coins $5,548 7,925 coins 2.36x 2026-11-07 02:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,353 3,361 coins $2,818 4,025 coins 1.20x 2026-11-06 03:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,353 3,361 coins $2,818 4,025 coins 1.20x 2026-11-04 22:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,353 3,361 coins $2,818 4,025 coins 1.20x 2026-11-04 09:55 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $2,353 3,361 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 1.19x 2026-11-03 13:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $2,769 3,955 coins 1.19x 2026-11-08 18:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $2,769 3,955 coins 1.19x 2026-11-08 18:25 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,353 3,361 coins $1,539 2,199 coins 0.65x 2026-11-07 02:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rain) [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $701 1,001 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) [🟢LIVE NOW -> kick.com/budics](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2LIVE%20NOW%20-%3E%20kick.com%2Fbudics) $2,319 3,313 coins $701 1,001 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 00:46 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $878 1,254 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 21:04 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $1,387 1,982 coins 0.60x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $1,299 1,855 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 18:14 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) [Mopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mopper) $2,319 3,313 coins $878 1,254 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $1,387 1,982 coins 0.60x 2026-11-10 13:57 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $2,319 3,313 coins $1,299 1,855 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 12:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [d3ad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/d3ad) $2,319 3,313 coins $302 432 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) [Mopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mopper) $2,319 3,313 coins $783 1,119 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 09:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2,319 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,353 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 2.5% covert 52.5% extraordinary 23.0% remarkable 10.0% classified 12.0% best hit $11.9K (5.06x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt