---
title: "Rainbow Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rainbow Case ($45.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 90.43% over 284 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rainbow Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rainbow Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case?window=all)

Price · $45.65 · 65.21 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $41.50 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.43% · 284 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 47 openings · below min

7 days · 87.38% ±22.36 257 openings

30 days · 90.43% ±21.27 284 openings

since tracking started · 90.43% ±21.27 284 openings

64.0% 116.8% 169.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case?window=24h) | 47 | 116.89% ±52.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case?window=7d) | 257 | 87.38% ±22.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case) | 284 | 90.43% ±21.3 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow-case?window=all) | 284 | 90.43% ±21.3 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,299 1,855 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,037 1,482 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $776 1,108 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $427 610 coins | 5.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $334 477 coins | 8.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $291 416 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $146 209 coins | 7.1% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $109 155 coins | 26.1% | 30 | 28.4 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $44.47 63.53 coins | 5.0% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 14.0% | $40.87 58.38 coins | 13.8% | 38 | 39.8 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $26.52 37.88 coins | 7.7% | 32 | 34.1 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 15.0% | $18.43 26.33 coins | 6.7% | 40 | 42.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $12.27 17.53 coins | 5.9% | 65 | 56.8 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $5.94 8.49 coins | 2.9% | 55 | 56.8 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $45.65 65.21 coins $776 1,108 coins 16.99x 2026-11-10 17:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rainbow-case)

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $45.65 65.21 coins $44.47 63.53 coins 0.97x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $45.65 65.21 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.65 65.21 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) [banditen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/banditen) $45.65 65.21 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) [Nixin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nixin) $45.65 65.21 coins $5.94 8.49 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 22:27 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $45.65 65.21 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 22:27 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) [BadKarma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BadKarma) $45.65 65.21 coins $26.52 37.88 coins 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:27 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) [ryfry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ryfry) $45.65 65.21 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 22:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $45.65 65.21 coins $5.94 8.49 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) [Russy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Russy) $45.65 65.21 coins $5.94 8.49 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $45.65 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $45.74 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.24 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.2% legendary 0.1% mil spec 30.0% red 10.0% classified 24.7% restricted 20.0% best hit $776 (16.99x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt