--- title: "Rainbow case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rainbow ($133.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 80.78% over 19 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rainbow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rainbow A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow?window=all) Price · $133.68 · 191 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $121.53 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.78% · 19 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 19 openings · below min 30 days · 19 openings · below min since tracking started · 19 openings · below min 45.5% 80.8% 116.0% **Small sample.** 19 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow?window=7d) | 19 | 80.78% ±34.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow) | 19 | 80.78% ±34.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainbow?window=all) | 19 | 80.78% ±34.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $557 795 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $523 747 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 59 | $412 589 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $368 526 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $277 396 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $241 345 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 14.4% | $234 335 coins | 27.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $218 311 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $210 300 coins | 6.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $157 224 coins | 9.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $133 190 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 22 | $122 174 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 14.0% | $91.70 131 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 12.5% | $69.05 98.65 coins | 7.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 15.0% | $38.31 54.73 coins | 4.7% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.11× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $16.22 23.17 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rainbow) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) Hidden $134 191 coins $38.31 54.73 coins 0.29x 2026-11-09 22:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) Hidden $134 191 coins $38.31 54.73 coins 0.29x 2026-11-09 22:12 UTC [AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) [Luxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Luxi) $134 191 coins $16.22 23.17 coins 0.12x 2026-11-09 22:12 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) Hidden $134 191 coins $157 224 coins 1.17x 2026-11-09 22:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $134 191 coins $69.05 98.65 coins 0.52x 2026-11-09 18:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $134 191 coins $38.31 54.73 coins 0.29x 2026-11-09 18:35 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) [T1NT1N](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/T1NT1N) $134 191 coins $412 589 coins 3.08x 2026-11-09 12:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) [FaQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaQ) $133 190 coins $39.26 56.09 coins 0.29x 2026-11-06 13:22 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) Hidden $133 190 coins $39.26 56.09 coins 0.29x 2026-11-05 12:21 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) Hidden $133 190 coins $146 209 coins 1.10x 2026-11-05 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $134 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $134 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $133 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.6% restricted 14.2% legendary 1.3% epic 0.4% classified 28.4% rare 15.0% uncommon 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt