--- title: "Rainfall case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rainfall ($5.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.86% from 10 items with odds, observed 87.92% over 7,748 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Rainfall](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Rainfall A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall?window=all) Price · $5.21 · 7.44 coins Advertised RTP · 90.86% · EV $4.73 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.92% · 7,748 openings, odds method Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.01% ±20.54 811 openings 7 days · 84.07% ±7.35 6,272 openings 30 days · 87.92% ±6.60 7,748 openings since tracking started · 87.92% ±6.60 7,748 openings 60.0% 81.0% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall?window=24h) | 811 | 81.01% ±20.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall?window=7d) | 6,272 | 84.07% ±7.35 | −1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall) | 7,748 | 87.92% ±6.60 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/rainfall?window=all) | 7,748 | 87.92% ±6.60 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,762 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $197 281 coins | 8.3% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $82.60 118 coins | 8.7% | 44 | 38.8 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $74.20 106 coins | 23.5% | 113 | 116.4 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $46.92 67.03 coins | 29.7% | 208 | 232.9 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $15.30 21.85 coins | 1.0% | 21 | 23.3 | 0.90× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.50 5 coins | 11.1% | 1,137 | 1164.3 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) | 19.5% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 7.6% | 1,524 | 1513.6 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.50 2.14 coins | 1.6% | 361 | 388.1 | 0.93× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-field-tested) | 25.0% | $1.39 1.98 coins | 7.3% | 1,939 | 1940.5 | 1.00× | | [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.17 0.25 coins | 1.1% | 2,400 | 2328.6 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=rainfall) [PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $1.50 2.14 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $1.50 2.14 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) [costel biju](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/costel%20biju) $5.21 7.44 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [kakapakala4](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kakapakala4) $5.21 7.44 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 7.44 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $5.21 | 90.86% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.20 | 90.95% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.19 | 90.92% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.27 | 90.96% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $5.26 | 90.87% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.26 | 90.89% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.35 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.7% restricted 23.5% mil spec 44.8% industrial 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.86 on average: an expected loss of $9.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt